The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中經院) said yesterday it expected the economy to contract by 3.72 percent this year, compared with the 3.56 percent it projected in July, as the pace of recovery has proven slower than expected.
However, the think tank, which advises the government on major policy-making, expects GDP to return to healthy growth of 4.65 percent next year, on stronger-than-expected external demand.
“Despite improving signs, the economy turned out weaker than expected in the second quarter and dipped further because of Typhoon Morakot in the third quarter,” Wang Lee-rong (王儷容), director of the institute’s center for Economic Forecasting, told a media briefing.
The institute nudged up its estimate for GDP growth for this quarter to 5.31 percent, from 4.48 percent forecast three months ago, owing to faster improvement in the global economy.
Private investment is expected to shrink 24.8 percent this year, making it the biggest drag on the economy, the report said. The component is forecast to recover to 8.16 percent growth next year.
Hsu Chih-chiang (徐之強), an economics professor at National Central University, said robust economic growth would remain untenable as long as private investment stays sluggish.
“It will be a major challenge for the government to direct idle funds to real investments as it attempts to spur economic growth,” Hsu said.
The CIER report said exports are expected to drop 11.38 percent this year and expand 9.72 percent next year, with consumer prices dipping 0.63 percent this year and edging up 0.78 percent next year.
Unemployment, which hit a record high of 6.13 percent in August, is expected to average 5.88 percent this year and 5.76 percent next year.
CIER researcher Peng Su-ling (彭素玲) said the job market would remain tough.
The proposed economic cooperation framework agreement with China will add uncertainty, as some sectors will gain job opportunities while others will lose more, depending on the terms and industrial adjustment, she said.
The local currency is expected to trade at an average of NT$33 against the US currency this year and rise to NT$31.83 next year, as demand for the greenback will weaken further owing to oversupply, CIER said.
Stephen Garrett, a 27-year-old graduate student, always thought he would study in China, but first the country’s restrictive COVID-19 policies made it nearly impossible and now he has other concerns. The cost is one deterrent, but Garrett is more worried about restrictions on academic freedom and the personal risk of being stranded in China. He is not alone. Only about 700 American students are studying at Chinese universities, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 a decade ago, while there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students at US schools. Some young Americans are discouraged from investing their time in China by what they see
MAJOR DROP: CEO Tim Cook, who is visiting Hanoi, pledged the firm was committed to Vietnam after its smartphone shipments declined 9.6% annually in the first quarter Apple Inc yesterday said it would increase spending on suppliers in Vietnam, a key production hub, as CEO Tim Cook arrived in the country for a two-day visit. The iPhone maker announced the news in a statement on its Web site, but gave no details of how much it would spend or where the money would go. Cook is expected to meet programmers, content creators and students during his visit, online newspaper VnExpress reported. The visit comes as US President Joe Biden’s administration seeks to ramp up Vietnam’s role in the global tech supply chain to reduce the US’ dependence on China. Images on
Taiwan Transport and Storage Corp (TTS, 台灣通運倉儲) yesterday unveiled its first electric tractor unit — manufactured by Volvo Trucks — in a ceremony in Taipei, and said the unit would soon be used to transport cement produced by Taiwan Cement Corp (TCC, 台灣水泥). Both TTS and TCC belong to TCC International Holdings Ltd (台泥國際集團). With the electric tractor unit, the Taipei-based cement firm would become the first in Taiwan to use electric vehicles to transport construction materials. TTS chairman Koo Kung-yi (辜公怡), Volvo Trucks vice president of sales and marketing Johan Selven, TCC president Roman Cheng (程耀輝) and Taikoo Motors Group
New apartments in Taiwan’s major cities are getting smaller, while old apartments are increasingly occupied by older people, many of whom live alone, government data showed. The phenomenon has to do with sharpening unaffordable property prices and an aging population, property brokers said. Apartments with one bedroom that are two years old or older have gained a noticeable presence in the nation’s six special municipalities as well as Hsinchu county and city in the past five years, Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房產集團) found, citing data from the government’s real-price transaction platform. In Taipei, apartments with one bedroom accounted for 19 percent of deals last