The global computer market is showing signs of recovery, with sales forecast to decline just 2 percent this year, better than a June prediction of 6 percent, the Gartner research group said on Wednesday.
Gartner said worldwide personal computer sales were on pace to reach 285 million units this year, down from 291 million last year.
“PC demand appears to be running much stronger than we expected back in June, especially in the United States and China,” Gartner research director George Shiffler said.
“Mobile PC shipments have regained substantial momentum, especially in emerging markets, and the decline in desk-based PC shipments is slowing down,” he said. “We think shipments are likely to be growing again in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared with the fourth quarter of 2008.”
Sales are expected to grow 12.6 percent next year.
In the first half of this year, PC sales fell 4.4 percent and Gartner said it was unlikely they would post growth for the year, even with the upcoming Oct. 22 release of Microsoft’s Windows 7 operating system.
“We don’t expect the release of Windows 7 to significantly influence PC demand at year-end,” Shiffler said. “At best, Windows 7 may generate a modest bump in home demand and possibly some added demand among small businesses.”
“We aren’t expecting most larger businesses, governments and educational institutions to express strong demand for the new operating system until late 2010,” he said.
Gartner’s forecast came after Intel Corp CEO Paul Otellini said on Tuesday that the worldwide PC market is pulling out of its slump quickly and could defy predictions by growing this year.
Otellini’s comments at the Intel Developers’ Forum were more bullish than many analysts’. IDC and Gartner have both predicted a year-over-year decline in PC shipments this year, which would be the first such drop since 2001.
Otellini said he expects PC sales to be “flat to slightly up” this year from last. He said the rebound is being fueled by the fact computers are “indispensable, something that people need in their daily lives.”
“I think that the market is poised for a resurgence,” he said.
Since Otellini proclaimed in April that PC sales had “bottomed out” after a miserable holiday season, he has been more aggressive in his forecasts than even Intel’s biggest customers. That has raised questions about how much of the recovery in Intel’s sales has been caused by computer makers restocking depleted chip supplies and how much has come from end users buying more machines.
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