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Memory chip market slump is ‘over’

The US$18.4 billion computer-­memory industry’s three-year slump is over and chipmakers led by Samsung Electronics Co are poised to see a market recovery that may last two years, Morgan Stanley said.

Dynamic random access memory (DRAM) sales will probably climb 21 percent to US$22.4 billion next year, the first gain in four years, after chipmakers scaled back production and as personal-computer demand rises, Keon Han, a Seoul-based analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report yesterday.

DRAM spot prices have more than doubled this year after falling more than 50 percent in last year.

“The industry downturn that began in 2007 is over,” Han wrote. “We believe the DRAM industry is now embarking on a sustainable recovery. We have a positive view of DRAM globally on a one- to two-year time horizon.”

Chip stocks rose in Seoul and Taipei trading after the broker raised its share-price estimates on Samsung, Hynix Semiconductor Inc and three Taiwanese chipmakers: Nanya Technology Corp (南亞科技), Winbond Electronics Corp (華邦電子) and Inotera Memories Inc (華亞科技).

“The DRAM market will be in a good shape this year and next year as demand is improving, while supply addition is limited,” said Im Jeong Jae, a fund manager at Shinhan BNP Paribas Asset Management Co. “Korean chipmakers are set to fully enjoy the recovery because their cost competitiveness against rivals is strengthening.”
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