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Consumer confidence up, CEPD indicators show growth

The consumer confidence index (CCI) rose 4.77 points to 67.86 points this month from last month on post-election optimism, a local researcher said yesterday.

According to the monthly survey released by the National Central University, the question that asked respondents whether they think it will be a good time to buy stocks in the next six months, saw the largest improvement as the stock sub-index climbed 12.5 points to reach 86.4 points this month.

Domestic business prospects over the next six months saw the second-largest improvement in the survey, as this sub-index rose 11.25 points to reach 58.4 points.

"The results of this month's survey are a reflection of post-election optimism, which shows that the public are upbeat about their personal and family economic conditions," Shia Ben-chang (謝邦昌), professor of statistics and information science at Fu Jen Catholic University, said by telephone yesterday.

Shia warned, however, that it was important for the next administration to help improve consumer confidence and boost domestic demand, or many people would be greatly disappointed.

Respondents also expressed concerns over rising commodity prices over the next six months. The commodity sub-index dropped by 1.95 points to 26.35 points.

A score between 0 and 100 indicates pessimism, while a score between 100 and 200 is classified as optimistic.

CEPD INDICATOR GREEN

In related news, economic growth is holding steady, the Council for Economic Planning and Develop-ment (CEPD) said yesterday after updating its economic indicators.

The index of leading indicators for last month fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent to 148.9 points from January, when it recorded a revised 0.1 percent month-on-month decrease, the council said.

The original reading of the January index, used to gauge the economy's direction in the coming months, was a 0.1 percent increase.

Last month's index of coincident indicators, which tracks the current pace of economic activity, rose 0.3 percent month-on-month to 155.7 points, after gaining 0.4 percent, or a revised 0.6 percent, in January, the council said.

The total score of monitoring indicators for last month was 27 points, compared with 27 -- or a revised 29 -- in January.

Last month's indicators continued to flash a "green light" reading, which signaled steady growth.

The CEPD uses a five-level spectrum to gauge domestic economic health, with blue indicating recession, yellow-blue a slowdown, green steady growth, yellow-red a slight overheating and red an absolute overheating.
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