Mon, Oct 15, 2007 - Page 12 News List

ANALYSIS: Can China offset US slowdown?

NEW WORLD ORDERSome economists are hopeful that China's expanding economy will fill the void created by weaker demand in the credit-crunch-hit US

By Kevin Chen  /  STAFF REPORTER

The US and Europe combined accounted for 22.5 percent of the nation's total exports last month, the ministry's data showed.

"Since 2000, GDP growth in Taiwan has been highly correlated with G2 [US and EU] growth as Taiwan's GDP growth has become even more export-reliant," Lee said.

Based on Deutsche Bank's data analysis, Taiwan is among the most vulnerable economies in Asia to a slowdown in the US and the EU.

Although Taiwan reported a 10.8 percent increase in shipments to Europe last month year-on-year to US$2.37 billion, Lee said the bank expected a synchronized slowdown in both US and EU markets.

"With Euroland growth also set to weaken, this important support for Taiwan's exports will disappear," Lee said.

More worrisome is the outlook for Taiwan's electronics exports considering China's overcapacity problem in this sector, the report said.

As electronics and electrical goods accounted for 45 percent of Taiwan's total exports, Lee said China's "decoupling" effect is not strong enough to ease the negative impact of weaker US and EU growth.

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