Taiwan Research Institute forecasts 4.35% GDP growth

The Taiwan Research Institute (台綜院) forecast yesterday that the nation's GDP growth would reach 4.35 percent this year, lower than last year's 4.68 percent because of the weaker global economy.

The Taipei-based institute's projection matches a forecast made last month by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) that the nation's GDP growth will reach 4.38 percent.

Taiwan Research's economic growth rate forecast was slightly higher than the 4.31 percent predicted by the Polaris Research Institute (寶華綜合經濟研究院) and lower than the Academia Sinica's figure of 4.46 percent released last week. Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (中經院) forecast 4.17 percent growth in April.

The nation's exports are expected to be affected by the global economy's growth rate this year, Taiwan Research said yesterday in a statement.

The International Monetary Fund and Global Insight Inc, a Massachusetts-based forecasting firm, have both forecast that the global economy's growth rate will drop by 0.5 percentage points this year from last year.

Taiwan Research predicted exports would grow by 6.27 percent this year, compared to 10.34 percent last year.

Private consumption is expected to increase, thanks to the stable employment market, robust stock and real estate market, and the subsiding effects of last year's credit abuse storm, Taiwan Research said.

It expected private consumption to increase by 2.68 percent this year, 1.23 percentage points higher than last year.

Public investment is also forecast to increase slightly this year because of the government's plans to regulate rivers and other waterways, renew railways and undertake other projects, the institute said.

Investment from the government and state-owned enterprises should increase by 2.25 percent this year, it said.