Print

Mail

wiki links

Chinese investors set for moves to rein in economy

Chinese investors were ready yesterday for what most considered to be inevitable government moves to rein in the economy, after first quarter growth figures showed previous efforts had not been effective.

But questions also emerged if any further measures Beijing could realistically adopt would matter much.

The fact that China reported growth of 11.1 percent in the first quarter -- despite a slew of policies to slow down activity -- was seen as a sign the world's fourth-largest economy is becoming harder to manage.

"There have been three interest rate hikes over the past year and all of them proved to have little impact on the property market," said Joe Zhou, a Shanghai-based analyst with real estate consulting firm Jones Lang LaSalle.

"Developers won't stop construction just because of a small interest rate rise," he said.

Property professionals were not the only ones looking at future government economic moves with an attitude bordering on apathy.

"It's not like we're working overtime or constantly monitoring the central bank's Web site," said Zhang Qi, a Shanghai-based trader with Haitong Securities.

"Even if there's a rate hike, it will be small, and like the others before it, it won't have a big impact on the market," he said.

Reflecting the coolness of the markets, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A and B-shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, closed up 135.19 points at 3,584.20, after trading between 3,460.90 and 3,591.46. Turnover was 156.13 billion yuan (US$20 billion).

The key index tumbled 4.5 percent on Thursday but rose 1.87 percent for the week.

The yuan ended the day at 7.7170 against the US dollar, down from Thursday's finish of 7.7160.

Thursday's plunge was merely experienced institutionals cashing in on recent gains, to the chagrin of retail investors that had recently entered, said Shen Jun, a trader with Shangzhenglian Investment Consulting in Shanghai.

The institutional investors spotted jitters ahead of the release of the first quarter data and decided it was a good time to sell, but by yesterday it was back to business as usual, he said.

"Even if there is more tightening from the central bank, for example during the Labor Day holiday in early May, it won't have any significant impact on the market as it's already factored in," Shen said.

In stark contrast to the wheeler-dealers in the plush offices of China's financial districts, the state-run media maintained the government could actually do something serious about the economy.

"At this point, it is not hard to say what the government should do," the state-controlled China Daily said in an editorial. "Plenty of observers say that China should slow down the speed of its growth in every category."

But the recent record of Chinese economic policy making might suggest this is easier said than done.

The economy's red-hot performance in the first three months has been fueled by the two factors the government has vowed to place under tighter control -- net exports and investment.

China's trade surplus roughly doubled in the first three months of the year to US$46.4 billion, despite successive moves by Beijing to reduce export tax incentives while making importing easier and more attractive.

In the same period, liquidity-driven investments in fixed assets grew 23.7 percent, in defiance of official steps to rein in the amount of money floating around in the system.

"Another big number proves that China's super-tanker economy is still nowhere near slowing," Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based economist with Standard Chartered Bank, said in a research note.

"To mix our maritime and aerial metaphors, this economy is not landing -- it has refuelled mid-flight and is flying higher again," he said.
This story has been viewed 992 times.