The Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中經院) yesterday cut its growth forecast for this year for the second time, due to the plummeting trade surplus in the second quarter.
Its forecast now stands at 3.53 GDP growth, down from 3.8 percent in July.
Customs statistics show that the nation's trade surplus slumped in the second quarter to US$137.3 million, down 73.34 percent year-on-year.
Driven by exporters' traditional peak season in the second half of the year, GDP growth in the third quarter is forecast to reach 4.07 percent and climb to 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, Chou Ji (周濟), a director at CIER's Economic Forecast Center, said at a press conference.
As for whether bird flu could further weaken the nation's economy like the SARS outbreak did in 2003, Chou said it's too soon to judge, but that if the flu spreads further it could begin to weigh on exports.
CIER forecast that growth will hit 4.02 percent next year, Chou said, due to several public construction projects, an expected recovery in domestic consumption and investment and higher trade volume.
But industry insiders are not as optimistic as the research institution, due to weakening global demand.
"I think the trade surplus will keep narrowing next year, and that will have a long-term effect," said Daniel Chen (
Chen said the nation's shrinking trade surplus will be worsened by an expected slide next year in major economies such as China and the US that Taiwan's export sector depends on heavily, in the wake of high oil prices.
Another reason that exports have sharply declined is industrial migration, Chen said.
Although China and Hong Kong are Taiwan's largest export destinations, such exports will gradually slide as supply chains in China mature and Taiwanese companies begin to source more from cheaper local suppliers, he said.
The domestic sector, especially consumer consumption, will not do well next year either, Chen said.
"I don't think we should have high hopes for next year," Chen said.
Among the rows of vibrators, rubber torsos and leather harnesses at a Chinese sex toys exhibition in Shanghai this weekend, the beginnings of an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven shift in the industry quietly pulsed. China manufactures about 70 percent of the world’s sex toys, most of it the “hardware” on display at the fair — whether that be technicolor tentacled dildos or hyper-realistic personalized silicone dolls. Yet smart toys have been rising in popularity for some time. Many major European and US brands already offer tech-enhanced products that can enable long-distance love, monitor well-being and even bring people one step closer to
Malaysia’s leader yesterday announced plans to build a massive semiconductor design park, aiming to boost the Southeast Asian nation’s role in the global chip industry. A prominent player in the semiconductor industry for decades, Malaysia accounts for an estimated 13 percent of global back-end manufacturing, according to German tech giant Bosch. Now it wants to go beyond production and emerge as a chip design powerhouse too, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said. “I am pleased to announce the largest IC (integrated circuit) Design Park in Southeast Asia, that will house world-class anchor tenants and collaborate with global companies such as Arm [Holdings PLC],”
Sales in the retail, and food and beverage sectors last month continued to rise, increasing 0.7 percent and 13.6 percent respectively from a year earlier, setting record highs for the month of March, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday. Sales in the wholesale sector also grew last month by 4.6 annually, mainly due to the business opportunities for emerging applications related to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing technologies, the ministry said in a report. The ministry forecast that retail, and food and beverage sales this month would retain their growth momentum as the former would benefit from Tomb Sweeping Day
Thousands of parents in Singapore are furious after a Cordlife Group Ltd (康盛人生集團), a major operator of cord blood banks in Asia, irreparably damaged their children’s samples through improper handling, with some now pursuing legal action. The ongoing case, one of the worst to hit the largely untested industry, has renewed concerns over companies marketing themselves to anxious parents with mostly unproven assurances. This has implications across the region, given Cordlife’s operations in Hong Kong, Macau, Indonesia, the Philippines and India. The parents paid for years to have their infants’ cord blood stored, with the understanding that the stem cells they contained