"Over the long term what we as a profession can offer is consistently being pretty close most of the time," said Benjamin Herzon, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, a consulting firm based in St. Louis.
But if that's the best they can do, why should we pay attention? Well, consensus forecasts tend to produce better results than individual ones. A study published last year by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta concluded that the Blue Chip forecast, on average, "performs better than any individual forecaster."
And Huang, a member of the WSJ panel, argues that consensus forecasts "serve as a collective wisdom of market perception."
Of course, the market isn't always right. Last month, the evidence was abundant, from lower job-creation figures to limp sales at Wal-Mart, that the economy's growth was slowing. But forecasters -- perhaps influenced by several quarters of decent growth -- collectively believe that the pace of the economy is accelerating.
The WSJ's 55 Nostradami believe that GDP will grow at an annual rate of 4.4 percent for the second and third quarters, and at a 4.2 percent clip in the fourth. The Philadelphia Fed crowd forecasts a 4.5 percent pace for the second quarter, and 4 percent in the second half of the year.
If economists are still looking in the rear-view mirror, it may be time to gently apply the brakes.
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