UBS said that Asian central banks, including in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, will sell their currencies for the next year to spur exports and maintain economic growth amid a slowdown in China and the US.
Asia's economic gains will "peak by the second half of the year, driven by a coordinated growth deceleration in China, Japan and the US," Jonathan Anderson, a Hong Kong-based chief economist at UBS, wrote in a research note. "We expect central banks to keep up the pace of large-scale" sales.
Relying on currency sales would extend a policy that Japan, Singapore and South Korea used last year to try to lure overseas buyers. For Japan, it would mean resuming sales after a break.
The central bank hasn't sold yen since March 16 as the nation's economy grew, following record sales of ?15.2 trillion (US$136.8 billion) earlier in the year.
Japan is probably the least likely to sell currency "at the pace it's done in the past," said Ashley Davies, a currency strategist at UBS in Singapore, in an interview. "That's simply because the economy is improving. They can tolerate a bit of yen strength. We look for continued strong intervention by Korea. The domestic economy is still relatively weak."
Asian central banks will resort to sales again after US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan signaled the Fed is ready to raise interest rates, threatening to slow economic growth in the world's biggest consumer of Asian exports, Anderson wrote.
China -- South Korea and Taiwan's biggest export market -- is also trying to slow growth to 7 percent this year from an expansion of 9.8 percent in the first quarter.
Choi Joong Kyung, director-general of the South Korean finance ministry's international finance bureau, said on April 2 that the central bank had conducted a "smoothing operation." The central bank buys or sells the won at the instruction of the ministry.
Central banks may be able to slow gains, though they won't be able to thwart a rally in the currencies, UBS said. It didn't specify which central banks in the region are most likely to sell.
UBS recommended buying the Japanese yen, Singapore dollar and New Taiwan dollar because overseas investors had become net buyers of Asian stocks, wrote Bhanu Baweja, a Singapore-based currency strategist.
"Strong foreigners' selling of Asian equities has now subsided and given way to a modest net buying of Asian stocks," the report said.
UBS said it is sticking with its forecast that the yen will appreciate to 100 per dollar at the end of the year.
Fund managers from outside Asia purchased a net ?186 billion in Japanese shares in the two weeks ending June 2, after being net sellers in the previous two weeks, according to Tokyo Stock Exchange figures. Such investors were also net stock buyers in Taiwan last week after they sold more equities than they bought a week earlier.
UBS cut its forecast for gains in the Indonesian rupiah this year on concern the country's presidential election on July 5 will deter some investors.
The rupiah may trade at 8,800 against the dollar at the end of the year, versus a previous projection of 8,200, from today's 9,388, UBS said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, booked its first-ever profit from its Arizona subsidiary in the first half of this year, four years after operations began, a company financial statement showed. Wholly owned by TSMC, the Arizona unit contributed NT$4.52 billion (US$150.1 million) in net profit, compared with a loss of NT$4.34 billion a year earlier, the statement showed. The company attributed the turnaround to strong market demand and high factory utilization. The Arizona unit counts Apple Inc, Nvidia Corp and Advanced Micro Devices Inc among its major customers. The firm’s first fab in Arizona began high-volume production
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE: The Japanese company is adding Intel to an investment portfolio that includes artificial intelligence linchpins Nvidia Corp and TSMC Softbank Group Corp agreed to buy US$2 billion of Intel Corp stock, a surprise deal to shore up a struggling US name while boosting its own chip ambitions. The Japanese company, which is adding Intel to an investment portfolio that includes artificial intelligence (AI) linchpins Nvidia Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), is to pay US$23 a share — a small discount to Intel’s last close. Shares of the US chipmaker, which would issue new stock to Softbank, surged more than 5 percent in after-hours trading. Softbank’s stock fell as much as 5.4 percent on Tuesday in Tokyo, its
COLLABORATION: Softbank would supply manufacturing gear to the factory, and a joint venture would make AI data center equipment, Young Liu said Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) would operate a US factory owned by Softbank Group Corp, setting up what is in the running to be the first manufacturing site in the Japanese company’s US$500 billion Stargate venture with OpenAI and Oracle Corp. Softbank is acquiring Hon Hai’s electric-vehicle plant in Ohio, but the Taiwanese company would continue to run the complex after turning it into an artificial intelligence (AI) server production plant, Hon Hai chairman Young Liu (劉揚偉) said yesterday. Softbank would supply manufacturing gear to the factory, and a joint venture between the two companies would make AI data
DOLLAR SIGNS: The central bank rejected claims that the NT dollar had appreciated 10 percentage points more than the yen or the won against the greenback The New Taiwan dollar yesterday fell for a sixth day to its weakest level in three months, driven by equity-related outflows and reactions to an economics official’s exchange rate remarks. The NT dollar slid NT$0.197, or 0.65 percent, to close at NT$30.505 per US dollar, central bank data showed. The local currency has depreciated 1.97 percent so far this month, ranking as the weakest performer among Asian currencies. Dealers attributed the retreat to foreign investors wiring capital gains and dividends abroad after taking profit in local shares. They also pointed to reports that Washington might consider taking equity stakes in chipmakers, including Taiwan Semiconductor