Bullish growth expected for Singapore's first quarter is not only being hailed as a welcome return to economic health but an indicator of an imminent passage of leadership to Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
With estimates for the growth in the city-state's gross domestic product (GDP) reaching 5.8 per cent in the first three months of the year, compared with the corresponding period in 2003, analysts predicted Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong will step down by August at the latest.
The government will release its preliminary estimates tomorrow, based on surging export and industrial production data.
Goh, prime minister since 1990, has said he would look at the first-quarter figures for assurances of growth this year of at least 3 percent to 4 percent before deciding on his turnover date.
But the 62-year-old Goh hasn't mentioned a specific schedule.
"The bookies are taking bets on that," he quipped during a recent visit to Bahrain. "I would not want to help them."
Expectations of a robust first quarter and economic recovery have whipped up predictions of a speedy switch.
"This is not somebody new taking over," said Cynthia Phua, a member of parliament from the ruling People's Action Party (PAP), which has run Singapore since independence in 1965. "Everyone is well-prepared for the change."
The 51-year-old Lee, currently finance minister as well as deputy prime minister, has made it clear he wants founding father -- and his own father as well -- Lee Kuan Yew to remain senior minister in the Cabinet.
Now 80, the senior Lee assumed the post after turning over the helm to Goh.
The junior Lee has also said he sees no reason why his wife, Ho Ching, executive director at Temasek Holdings, the government's investment arm, should change jobs.
Critics have observed that Singapore politics runs like a family business. Lee has strongly denied it.
August is a popular choice for the turnover speculation because of National Day with all its fanfare on the 6th.
"What better time than the National Day rally for the new prime minister to address Singaporeans," lawmaker Charles Chong told the newspaper Streats.
"That is when the PM gives his progress report, overview of world scenario and what he's going to do for the country," he said
Goh has also said he wanted the handover to take place at least two years before general elections.
The prime minister, of which there have only been two, has consistently run unopposed along with his Cabinet members under the strong PAP rule. Currently, there are only two opposition members in the entire parliament.
Goh "has already been fading increasingly into the background," said parliamentarian Maliki Osman. "If you look at the recent budget debate, questions addressed to the prime minister's office were answered by Deputy Prime Minister Lee.
Even Singapore's dismal birthrate has been cited as a factor indicating a change soon. Although the birth plunge has been going on for two decades, it was Lee who set a National Day deadline for Lim Hng Kiang, minister in the prime minister's office, to submit proposed baby-boosting measures.
"It is possible that the new prime minister might want to make a speech and dish out the procreation measures himself," said political analyst Ho Khai Leong.
With only 37,633 babies born last year, the lowest in more than 25 years, the government has pointed out the figure is nowhere near the level needed to replace the population of 4 million by natural means or meet its future economic, labor and defense requirements.
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