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Exports performing well as uncertainty kicks in

The nation's industrial productivity and export performance showed signs of continued strength last month, although such strength may be undercut by recent post-election political turbulence, a government official said yesterday.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs yesterday reported that export orders last month increased 34.7 percent to NT$500.60 billion (US$15.04 billion). The figure was NT$463.99 billion (US$13.94 billion) in January.

Industrial productivity in February rose 28 percent from a year earlier, following a revised decline of 1.12 percent in January, the ministry said.

But political instability following Saturday's presidential election "will somewhat affect the economy," said Chang Yaw-tsong (張耀宗), the head of the ministry's statistics department, at a press conference yesterday.

Before the uncertainty cleared, the ministry would not revise its forecasts for industrial productivity and export orders, Chang said.

The ministry has previously predicted that export orders, an indicator for future shipments in one to three months, might increase by double digits during the first half of the year. It also expected industrial productivity to rise between 5 and 8 percent during the same period.

Taiwan's export orders rose 20 percent in the first two months of the year, which JP Morgan Chase and Co said pointed to an impressive start for the year for the nation's economy.

"These bullish economic signals, however, are marred by continuing uncertainty regarding a swift resolution to the post-election gridlock between the ruling and opposition parties," JP Morgan economist Lian Chia-liang said in the report.

"Still, the data released today lend support to our expectation that economics will ultimately triumph over politics, and our 2004 GDP-growth forecast of 5.3 percent stays intact for now," Lian said.
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