Prices of the most popular computer-memory chips are rising this month on increasing demand according to market figures, but analysts had mixed opinions yesterday about the possibilities for a positive impact on the books of local dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chip producers.
"Demand is good, and there are supply problems, so this is good for price," said George Wu (
"I expect some DRAM price recovery and this is good for local producers," he said.
Taiwan's DRAM makers include Nanya Technology Corp (
Spot prices of the benchmark 256-megabit 333-megahertz double-data-rate (DDR) DRAM chip could rise to US$4.60 by tomorrow based on increased shipments, up from a Jan. 5 low of US$3.69, the Taiwan-based on-line memory trading site Dramexchange.com reported earlier this week.
Prices hit the US$4.60 level at their highest yesterday, but averaged out at US$4.20, according to the exchange.
But another analyst said price hikes were unlikely to hold.
"From my understanding there isn't a shortage," said Rick Hsu (徐禕成), an analyst with Nomura Securities in Taipei.
"Something is happening on the spot market because of a problem with shipments from Samsung Electronics Co, but that is more likely a short-term phenomenon," he said.
Local Chinese-language media have speculated that South Korea-based Samsung, one of the world's leading DRAM suppliers, had to bin thousands of chips due to faults in a batch from its most advanced 12-inch wafer fab.
The latest chip production facilities or fabs etch more miniature transistors onto each silicon wafer, to cut costs and increase output.
Wu said unexpectedly high demand for computer circuit boards that need memory chips next quarter in the traditionally low season could maintain an upward momentum in DRAM prices.
"Mainboard shipments for April and May are extremely good, which is surprising as the second quarter is normally very low," he said, citing industry insiders.
A spokesman at Taiwan's largest mainboard supplier, Asustek Computer Inc (
"As a public company, we are not supposed to issue financial projections without a formal report to back up our forecast," Will Teng of the company's sales and marketing division said in an e-mail statement.
"We are not allowed to manipulate investors with casual information," he said.
The company shipped 3.1 million boards last month and expects to reach the same number this month, the statement said.
Last year, Taiwan shipped 103.5 million mainboards, an increase of almost 20 percent on the previous year, according to figures from the semi-official tech researcher Market Intelligence Center (市場情報中心).
Analysts said DRAM prices may not improve significantly until after June.
"DRAM prices are still fluctuating within a very narrow range," Hsu said.
"We still hold to our view that there will be a better pick-up in the second half of the year," he said.
Hsu said there may be a slight boost to prices next quarter when the world's largest chip company, Intel Corp, releases a new computer chip code-named the Prescott that requires faster and more expensive DDR2 memory. Dramexchange also expects the Prescott to drive demand and prices next quarter.
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