The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) yesterday raised its forecast for economic growth this year to 4.74 from its previous prediction, made in November, of 4.1 percent.
The economy grew 3.24 percent last year and 3.59 percent in 2002, the DGBAS said.
The economy grew 5.17 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from the year before and is expected to grow 5.16 percent in the first quarter and 5.21 percent in the second quarter this year, the agency said in a statement.
The DGBAS said it made the revision because of the revival in the global economy led by the US and China which is increasing imports from neighboring countries. As one of the largest exporters to China, Taiwan is expected to export 10 percent more this year.
The increase in trade will attract private investment, especially in thin-film transistor liquid-crystal displays, or TFT-LCD, semiconductors and DVD-R makers, it said.
The DGBAS said government spending, which is expected to grow by 1.4 percent this year, and rising domestic consumption, forecast to grow 3.3 percent, would also contribute to economic growth.
The consumer price index will likely expand by 0.48 percent, the statement said. Taiwan experienced a recession in 2001 and commodity prices have remained unchanged since then.
The government's GDP forecast is lower than those by private institutes.
The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (
Chen Tain-jy (陳添枝), president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (中經院), said on Thursday that GDP growth will definitely grow more than 5 percent this year, a prediction he based on better-than-expected economic indicators from the past two months. Last year, his institute forecast growth this year of 4.36 percent.
Several economic indexes have shown encouraging signs recently. The unemployment rate held at a two-year low of 4.58 percent in December, while the benchmark TAIEX on Thursday reached a 41-month high of 6,681.52.
Overseas economists are even more upbeat about the nation's economy. A report from UK-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) last month said the economy would grow by 5.4 percent this year. Goldman Sachs also revised upward its forecast from 5 percent to 5.8 percent in a report published in November.
One element of uncertainty is the presidential election, but analysts said they expected only a short-term effect.
DIVIDED VIEWS: Although the Fed agreed on holding rates steady, some officials see no rate cuts for this year, while 10 policymakers foresee two or more cuts There are a lot of unknowns about the outlook for the economy and interest rates, but US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled at least one thing seems certain: Higher prices are coming. Fed policymakers voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent for a fourth straight meeting on Wednesday, as they await clarity on whether tariffs would leave a one-time or more lasting mark on inflation. Powell said it is still unclear how much of the bill would fall on the shoulders of consumers, but he expects to learn more about tariffs
NOT JUSTIFIED: The bank’s governor said there would only be a rate cut if inflation falls below 1.5% and economic conditions deteriorate, which have not been detected The central bank yesterday kept its key interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive quarter, aligning with market expectations, while slightly lowering its inflation outlook amid signs of cooling price pressures. The move came after the US Federal Reserve held rates steady overnight, despite pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut borrowing costs. Central bank board members unanimously voted to maintain the discount rate at 2 percent, the secured loan rate at 2.375 percent and the overnight lending rate at 4.25 percent. “We consider the policy decision appropriate, although it suggests tightening leaning after factoring in slackening inflation and stable GDP growth,”
Greek tourism student Katerina quit within a month of starting work at a five-star hotel in Halkidiki, one of the country’s top destinations, because she said conditions were so dire. Beyond the bad pay, the 22-year-old said that her working and living conditions were “miserable and unacceptable.” Millions holiday in Greece every year, but its vital tourism industry is finding it harder and harder to recruit Greeks to look after them. “I was asked to work in any department of the hotel where there was a need, from service to cleaning,” said Katerina, a tourism and marketing student, who would
i Gasoline and diesel prices at fuel stations are this week to rise NT$0.1 per liter, as tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher last week, CPC Corp, Taiwan (台灣中油) and Formosa Petrochemical Corp (台塑石化) said yesterday. International crude oil prices last week rose for the third consecutive week due to an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, as the market is concerned that the situation in the Middle East might affect crude oil supply, CPC and Formosa said in separate statements. Front-month Brent crude oil futures — the international oil benchmark — rose 3.75 percent to settle at US$77.01
RSS