There are plenty of risks for Taiwan, too, particularly in the short run. Even if Taipei wins recognition from the WHO, its fortunes are increasingly tied to China's. It's the No. 1 destination for Taiwanese investment and exports. If SARS continues to spread apace in China, Taiwanese growth could be pulled lower, too.
Even though Beijing's spin machine is arguing otherwise, SARS will hurt the economy. Last week it took the unprecedented step of releasing a monthly report on GDP. If you believe the figures, China grew 8.9 percent last month even as SARS and slowing global demand are hurting everywhere else.
Another risk is that Taipei will overplay its hand. Even after the SARS scandal, its 8 percent plus growth rate arms Beijing with considerable leverage around the globe. London, Tokyo and Washington also want China's support on crises in Iraq, North Korea and elsewhere. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) needs to ask Beijing nicely to support his WHO bid.
But if China's SARS epidemic is contained and Taiwan's international standing improves, economic gains are likely. It's as well positioned to gain from the world's most dynamic economy. SARS could be a short-term problem for Taiwan, but a long-term plus.
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