Wed, Sep 22, 1999 page5

• But was it the big one?

  PREDICTIONS Yesterday's earthquake may have been large and highly destructive, but it was not the one that most seismologists had been expecting

  • By Jay Speiden / STAFF REPORTER
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  Yesterday's 7.6 magnitude quake that originated near the central township of Puli and ripped outward through Nantou and Taichung counties, happened true to a prediction made in January by Taiwan's Center for Seismological Research. Taiwan, the center predicted, was "about to re-enter a period of large-scale earthquake activity." The center went on to say that the possibility of a large quake equal to or stronger than Japan's Kobe quake in 1995 was "very high."

  But was yesterday's quake the big one the center predicted?

  "This was a big one," said Dr. Shannon Lee, a professor at National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, "just not the big one we were -- and still are -- expecting."

  Lee, who specializes in reinforcing buildings to better stand the impact of a major earthquake, is also a long-time proponent of strengthening building regulations to answer this need.

  "In terms of Taiwan's seismological history, this quake surprised a lot of people," said Lee. "Nobody was predicting a large quake with an epicenter in Puli." Rather, Lee said, most seismologists and scientists had predicted that the next large earthquake, or "big one," would likely strike along well-known fault lines located in Miaoli and Chiayi counties.

  Lee speaks for most of the scientific community when he says that just because people in Miaoli and Chiayi were spared the disastrous consequences of being at the epicenter of yesterday's quake, the second largest in Taiwan history, it doesn't mean that they are off the hook.

  "Unfortunately, in terms of nature's seismological timeline, these fault lines are still due for a big break," said Lee.

  The Miaoli fault snapped in 1935 resulting in a 7.1 quake that killed 3,000 people. The Chiayi fault last shifted in 1941 and was also a 7.1, but only around 300 people died.

  "If we follow the rules of science and nature," according to Lee, both of these faults are still due for another seven-plus Richter-scale shake even taking into account yesterday's large quake.

  Still, according to Lee and his colleagues, despite the tragedy and destruction, there can be a positive side to a big quake. "My job is to prepare buildings for earthquakes, but most of the time my colleagues and I feel like we are shouting at the deaf," Lee lamented yesterday, after touring the collapsed Sungshan Hotel on Pateh Road in Taipei.

  "Before a big quake hits, most people either don't understand what we are talking about or they just don't care." But Lee said that after a big quake like yesterday's, the government and the people change their tune.

  "We have their undivided attention," he said.

  It's times like right now, Lee added, that tremendous gains can be made in obtaining much-needed government assistance in preparing Taiwan for the ever-present threat of future quakes.

  Structural engineer Dr K.C. Tsai has described his job as a race against time. Tsai works at Taiwan's National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering and has long argued that the government should heed the warnings of the scientific community and move to pass laws that require building owners to improve their structures. Tsai says it is a pity that it takes a big quake to prompt government action in improving Taiwan's building codes and standards.

  "We recently presented a budget plan to the Ministry of the Interior (MOI) that would allow them to strengthen and improve the foundations and structures of all government buildings in Taiwan," Lee said.

  "Hopefully this quake will prompt the government to move quickly to make these improvements a reality, not only to their own buildings, but to all structures in Taiwan."

  In Taipei, where according to Tsai, the structural integrity of thousands of buildings is in doubt, the drive to strengthen building foundations is still very much a race against time.

  "Most people are very pleased with how Taipei held up to the quake," says Roan Ching-yuen, a local architect. "There was limited destruction among Taipei's buildings and builders should be happy that, for the most part, their buildings performed well."

  But Lee attributes the safety of Taipei's buildings to the fact that the quake was so far away.

  "Taiwan is so active seismologically," he said, "that a quake can happen anywhere at anytime. Yesterday's quake in Puli is proof enough of that."

  For Lee, who will travel to Nantou to check building foundations near the quake's epicenter, most evidence of the quake's destructive power is probably still to come.

  "I would hate to see what a quake this size would do if it struck in downtown Taipei -- that's why, now, just as ever, we need to keep vigilant and be prepared," he said.
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