Russia’s central bank announced a half-percent cut in its main interest rates yesterday, its third cut since the end of April to stimulate the crisis-hit economy as the ruble stabilizes.
The bank’s board of directors decided to cut the key refinancing rate, effective today, to 11.5 percent from 12 percent, the central bank said in a statement published on its Web site.
The cut was the second in less than a month after the bank on May 14 cut the refinancing rate to 12 percent from 12.5 percent.
Russia’s economy, dependent on exports of hydrocarbons and raw materials, has been hit badly by the economic slowdown although the government has fought hard to prevent any repeat of the 1998 crisis when it defaulted on debt.
The economy will only start to recover from the crisis by the end of this year or the start of 2010 amid declining consumer demand and investment, Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina was quoted as saying on Thursday.
Nabiullina confirmed her ministry was predicting a contraction in the Russian economy this year of between 6 percent and 8 percent, one of the most pessimistic forecasts from any body.
“We hope that there will be a recovery of our economy by the end of this year or the start of next year,” she told the Vedomosti newspaper in an interview to coincide with Russia’s annual economic forum in Saint Petersburg.
“There is some talk that there is a recovery now in the world economy ... but there is no unambiguous understanding of how stable this is. The risks remain for the world economy and we are dependent on it,” she said.
Nabiullina said the forecast of a 6 percent to 8 percent contraction in GDP this year compared with last year was justified given the economy had contracted 9.5 percent in the first quarter year-on-year.
Not only was the global slowdown deeper than originally forecast but Russian consumer demand and investment volumes had “fallen by more than we expected,” she said.
Yet she expressed optimism that Russia would not suffer a second crisis wave owing to the bad debts of banks “even though we have to be ready for any possible development in the situation.”
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