Thailand is ready to shift its approach to a slow-burn insurgency in its Muslim-majority deep south and revitalize a peace process, Bangkok’s chief negotiator said, as violence simmers in one of Southeast Asia’s longest-running conflicts.
Any such move could mark a return to addressing the political roots of a conflict that has killed more than 7,800 people since 2004, when the latest round of the insurgency led mainly by the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) flared in Thailand’s southernmost provinces, bordering Malaysia. In the latest violence in the region, five security personnel were killed in an attack last month.
Since negotiations facilitated by Malaysia began in 2013, the peace process has repeatedly stalled amid changing governments in Bangkok, internal divisions on both sides and a focus on trading concessions for a reduction in violence.
Photo: Reuters
Thanut Suvarnananda, head of Thailand’s National Intelligence Agency who was appointed by the government in April to lead the peace process, said he wanted to move away from a transactional approach.
“My principle is not ‘deal or no deal,’” he told reporters in an interview, underlining the traditional approach and pointing to previous confidence-building measures that yielded limited results.
“If they stop shooting, what does Thailand have to give them in return? We [cannot] fall into the same trap as the past 10-plus years,” he said.
“Why don’t we reopen the discussion and talk about what form of governance would actually be appropriate for the southern border region?” he said, indicating Bangkok’s willingness to be more accommodating to self-administration mechanisms than in the past.
“From the discussions I’ve had, I think I’ve found what is at the heart of it: an appropriate form of governance,” he said.
This way, Thanut said, he seeks to turn the BRN from an adversary into a potential partner in addressing demands from communities across Thailand’s deep south, including the predominantly Malay-Muslim provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat that were once part of the independent Malay sultanate of Patani.
Amnesty, pardons and sentence reductions for suspected insurgents with outstanding warrants or in custody were being considered, Thanut said.
Such proposals have been discussed previously, but have not yielded concrete measures.
The BRN, fighting a guerrilla war to secure independence for the three southern provinces, did not respond to a request for comment.
Bangkok needs to demonstrate that negotiations can deliver meaningful political change and ensure its multiple security agencies are aligned, if Thai authorities are looking to pivot after years of focusing on violence reduction, said Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat, a lecturer at Prince of Songkla University who studies the conflict.
“It has to be prepared to make political concessions,” she said, referring to the government.
So far, efforts to restart formal talks have been complicated by violence, including the attack last month in Narathiwat that killed five security personnel and injured six civilians, prompting Bangkok to postpone pre-planned dialogue processes.
Thanut said he had asked the BRN why attacks were taking place when discussions had been progressing well and the two sides were moving toward signing a “preliminary framework” as early as next month.
He said the BRN was still discussing the matter internally.
However, there are no new dates for formal talks to resume and Thanut said communication between both sides would continue.
A recent upsurge in violence in the south has been driven by waning confidence within the BRN in the peace process, said Rungrawee, citing discussions with members of the movement.
“People sitting at the negotiating table may still be interested, but many others within the organization have lost faith in it,” she said.
Following public consultations, Thanut said he envisages an approach where BRN representatives, or people trusted by the movement, can work with Thai officials and experts to explore decentralization and other governance arrangements.
Restrictive security measures, including village cordons, searches and checkpoints, that could stoke resentment within local communities and fuel the insurgency, also need to be reviewed, he said.
“We’ve been fighting for years. They cannot defeat the state, and we cannot eliminate them completely,” Thanut said. “So let’s talk.”
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