Pierre Poilievre, who is running to reclaim a seat in Canada’s parliament next week, was on track to be Canadian prime minister until US President Donald Trump upended Canadian politics.
However, even if the Canadian Conservative Party leader wins tomorrow’s by-election in one of the country’s most right-wing districts, experts say he might struggle to regain momentum in a political arena still heavily shaped by the US president.
Poilievre’s Conservatives blew a massive polling lead in the run-up to Canada’s April general election, as voters backed the new Liberal leader, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, to confront Trump.
Photo: Reuters
In a stinging humiliation, Poilievre lost to a Liberal in his own constituency, an Ottawa-area district he had represented for two decades, but the Conservatives performed solidly overall and deprived the Liberals of a majority, allowing Poilievre to suppress calls for him to go as party leader.
To return as opposition leader, Poilievre needed to get back into parliament. The MP for Battle River-Crowfoot — a rural district in the western province of Alberta where Conservatives dominate — offered to step down so Poilievre could run for his seat.
Poilievre is the favorite, but faces an uncertain path should he rejoin parliament, in part because some voters continue to see him as “a little Trump,” said Frederic Boily, a University of Alberta political scientist. In Canada, that is not a good brand.
Poilievre has sought to make clear that he sees Trump as a rival, but one that Carney is failing to confront.
“President Trump is the one putting these tariffs on Canadians, but Mark Carney is the one who promised Canadians he could ‘handle him’ and ‘win,’” Poilievre said this month
New Gallup data puts Canadian attitudes toward US political leadership at record lows. While the president’s threats to make Canada the 51st US state have subsided, his trade war is hurting crucial industries.
The Gallup survey showed that only 15 percent of Canadians approve of Washington, the lowest level on record in data going back to 2008. The next lowest approval rate — 16 percent — was recorded in 2018, during Trump’s first term.
For Donald Abelson, an expert on US-Canada relations at McMaster University, Poilievre is trying to “feed off the frustration and disillusionment in Canada about the imposition of tariffs and the bullying [while saying] that he, unlike Carney, is prepared to stand up to Trump.”
The strategy is limited, Abelson said, as Canadians want a long-term plan to realign the country away from the US — a central Carney talking point.
“If Poilievre overplays the Trump card, he’s making a mistake,” he said.
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