Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week highlighted China’s aspirations for a greater role on the world stage, but they also revealed the perils of global diplomacy.
Hours after Friday’s announcement of the plan, an international arrest warrant was issued for Putin on war crimes charges, taking at least some wind out of the sails of China’s big reveal.
The flurry of developments — which followed China’s brokering of an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations, and its release of what it calls a “peace plan” for Ukraine — came as the administration of US President Joe Biden watches warily Beijing’s moves to assert itself more forcefully in international affairs.
Photo: REUTERS / Sputnik
Asked about the Xi-Putin meeting, Biden said: “Well, we’ll see when that meeting takes place.”
The Biden administration believes China’s desire to be seen as a broker for peace between Russia and Ukraine might be viewed more critically now that Putin is officially a war crime suspect, two US officials said.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the matter publicly, said the administration hopes the warrants will help mobilize heretofore neutral countries weigh in on the conflict.
SIGNIFICANT MEETING
The visit to Russia would be Xi’s first foreign trip since being elected to an unprecedented third term as president. It comes as Beijing and Moscow have bolstered ties in steps that began shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a meeting between the two leaders in Beijing at which they declared a “no limits” partnership.
Since then, China has repeatedly sided with Russia in blocking international action against Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.
US officials say Bejing is considering supplying Russia with weapons to support the war.
However, it has also tried to cast itself in a more neutral role, offering a peace plan that was essentially ignored.
The meeting in Moscow is likely to see the two sides recommit to their partnership, which both see as critical to countering what they consider undue and undeserved influence exerted by the US and its Western allies.
ARREST WARRANT
The arrest warrant, issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Friday, is unlikely to have a major influence on the meeting or China’s position toward Russia.
Neither China nor Russia — nor the US or Ukraine — have ratified the ICC’s founding treaty.
Washington, beginning with the administration of former US president Bill Clinton, has refused to join the court, fearing that its broad mandate could result in the prosecution of US troops or officials.
That means that none of the four countries is bound by the court’s orders, although Ukraine has consented to allowing some ICC probes of crimes on its territory and the US has cooperated with ICC investigations.
In addition, it is highly unlikely that Putin would travel to a country that would be bound by obligations to the ICC. If he did, it is questionable whether that country would arrest him. There is precedent for those previously indicted, notably former Sudanese president Omar Bashir, to have visited ICC members without being detained.
THE US’ VIEW
US officials have not minced words when it comes to Xi’s planned visit to Moscow.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called Beijing’s push for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine a “ratification of Russian conquest” and said that Russian forces could use a truce to regroup their positions “so that they can restart attacks on Ukraine at a time of their choosing.”
“We do not believe that this is a step towards a just, durable peace,” he said.
UKRAINE’S VIEW
Speaking before the ICC warrant was issued, Ukrainian analysts cautioned against falling into a potential trap ahead of the Xi-Putin meeting.
“We need to be aware that such peace talks are a trap for Ukraine and its diplomatic corps,” said Yurii Poita, who heads the Asia section at the Kyiv-based New Geopolitics Research Network.
“Under such conditions, these peace talks won’t be directed toward peace,” said Nataliia Butyrska, a Ukrainian analyst on politics related to Eastern Asia.
She said the visit reflects not so much China’s desire for peace, but its desire to play a major role in whatever post-conflict settlement might be reached.
RUSSIA’S VIEW
Even if China stops short of providing military assistance to Russia, Moscow sees Xi’s visit as a powerful signal of Chinese backing that challenges Western efforts to isolate Russia and deal crippling blows to its economy.
Kremlin spokesman Yuri Ushakov said that Putin and Xi have “very special friendly and trusting personal ties,” and hailed Beijing’s peace plan.
“We highly appreciate the restrained, well-balanced position of the Chinese leadership on this issue,” Ushakov said.
CHINA’S VIEW
Chinese officials have been boasting about their newfound clout in the international arena as their country’s foreign policy has become increasingly assertive under Xi.
In announcing Xi’s visit to Moscow, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Qin Gang (秦剛) said Beijing’s ties with Moscow are a significant world force.
“As the world enters a new period of turbulence and change, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and an important power, the significance and influence of China-Russia relations go far beyond the bilateral scope,” he said, calling the visit “a journey of friendship, further deepening mutual trust and understanding between China and Russia.”
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