Before traveling to Moscow last week, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stopped over in Ankara to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and praise his diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Less than two hours after the two shook hands, a big part of the goodwill that Ankara has engendered in the West through its unique role as mediator between warring parties was undone, undermining Turkey’s chances of capitalizing on thawing ties.
The turning point came when an Istanbul court sentenced a philanthropist, Osman Kavala, to life in jail for his role in protests against the government in 2013, in defiance of Western calls to free him in a case that many consider to be politically motivated.
Photo: Reuters
One Western diplomat who watched with surprise as the headlines landed on his phone on Monday last week said that the ruling underscored how Erdogan’s government “cannot be trusted on some issues,” despite having scored political points over Ukraine.
Another envoy called the verdict the “worst-case scenario.”
Eight diplomats said that the ruling was a blow to Turkey’s ambitions to heal frayed economic and political ties with Western countries while also remaining close to Moscow. Erdogan opposes the sanctions against Russia imposed since its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.
It also chilled Western hopes of rapprochement, the eight diplomats said.
It is a reversal for Turkey, which is alone in having hosted wartime talks between Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers, and peace negotiators. Ankara wants the West to prepare for the end of the war, including the gradual lifting of sanctions, and for restrictions on its own defense industry to be lifted.
It also wants more cooperation with its NATO allies, including the US, France and Italy, and to alleviate existing tensions with the West in the run-up to elections amid mounting economic woes.
Wariness of boosting Erdogan ahead of next year’s elections that recent polls suggest he could lose have also undermined chances of meaningful trade or investment deals, including progress updating a EU customs union, several of the diplomats said.
Erdogan and officials say the war has made allies realize Turkey’s geopolitical importance and that Ankara’s balanced policy on Ukraine was welcomed, even admired.
The diplomats interviewed shared that assessment.
The West understands Turkey’s position on sanctions and Ankara will not become a haven to evade them, Turkish officials said.
At the weekend, Erdogan’s spokesman and head foreign policy adviser Ibrahim Kalin made a surprise visit to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
He later said he discussed ways to end the war.
If Russia’s attacks on Ukraine last through the summer, Turkey would likely come under increasing pressure from Washington and Brussels to boost its support for Ukraine, the diplomats said.
It has already sent armed drones to Kyiv, blocked some Russian naval passage to the Black Sea, and barred Russian flights to and from Syria.
Turkey’s stance of facilitating negotiations and opposing sanctions on Moscow “can only last so long,” a third diplomat said.
A shift toward Ukraine in the conflict could prompt Russia to punish Turkey’s economy by cutting heavy tourist and energy flows, or both, the person said, underlining how opportunity could turn to crisis for Ankara.
Some analysts said that the Kavala ruling served to warn the opposition ahead of the elections.
The president might have been emboldened by diplomatic cover the war afforded him, they added.
“Erdogan does not want to be excluded by the West, but he wants it to accept him as he is: as a strong man of Turkey,” said Birol Baskan, non-resident academic at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
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