Houston, we have a problem.
US rocket companies are facing the daunting task of ferrying hundreds of satellites to space in the coming years as sanctions sideline the Russian space launch industry.
SpaceX, Astra Space and Rocket Lab USA are among a handful of US companies expected to fill the vacuum, but industry officials have doubts about their capacity to quickly ramp up.
Photo: AP
As the race between companies, including Elon Musk-owned SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon.com Inc’s Project Kuiper, for building giant satellite constellations to beam broadband Internet from space heats up, demand for launches is expected to skyrocket.
More than 800 satellites under 100kg are expected to be put in orbit this year alone, nearly double the number of launches last year, according to data from launch service aggregator Precious Payload.
With Project Kuiper taking up significant capacity over the next few years, analysts expect the industry to face some launch-related delays.
“Come 2024, 2025, when all these mega constellations need a launch, there is going to be a real problem,” Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck told reporters, referring to the networks of communications satellites being built by SpaceX, AST Spacemobile and OneWeb.
Rocket Lab is among a new breed of firms building miniaturized propulsion systems to cash in on an exponential rise in demand for putting compact satellites in low-Earth orbit.
Last year, satellites launched by OneWeb and SpaceX accounted for the launch of about three-quarters of small satellites, industry analytics firm BryceTech said.
Still, Russia maintained a 16 percent share of the global launch market over the past five years, historical databases show.
Its share was actually larger, given that Soyuz rockets were also launched under a since-suspended French-Russian joint venture named Starsem.
About two-thirds of Soyuz launches were commercial or in support of the International Space Station, while the rest were for Russia’s domestic customers, Quilty Analytics analyst Caleb Henry said.
If access to Russia’s capabilities are lost due to Western sanctions on the country for its invasion of Ukraine, companies in Europe and the US would have to quickly step in to meet demand.
However, that might not be all that easy, given the complexities and challenges involved in building and launching new rockets.
“It is always possible that new vehicles will come online faster, thanks to improved manufacturing techniques, but precedent suggests it will be difficult to achieve high launch cadences for the next few years,” Henry said.
Beck said the launch crisis would also apply to smaller satellites used to image the Earth and conduct scientific observation that usually share a ride to orbit on a rocket with other satellites.
Delayed launches can affect satellite Internet companies in multiple ways. There is a risk of losing launch rights if they do not adhere to a US Federal Communications Commission-mandated deadline, while some firms might not see return on investment unless their satellite is in orbit.
United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing Co and Lockheed Martin, is set to replace its Russian engines with those made by Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin.
Still, Western launch companies have a long way to go.
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