Houston, we have a problem.
US rocket companies are facing the daunting task of ferrying hundreds of satellites to space in the coming years as sanctions sideline the Russian space launch industry.
SpaceX, Astra Space and Rocket Lab USA are among a handful of US companies expected to fill the vacuum, but industry officials have doubts about their capacity to quickly ramp up.
Photo: AP
As the race between companies, including Elon Musk-owned SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon.com Inc’s Project Kuiper, for building giant satellite constellations to beam broadband Internet from space heats up, demand for launches is expected to skyrocket.
More than 800 satellites under 100kg are expected to be put in orbit this year alone, nearly double the number of launches last year, according to data from launch service aggregator Precious Payload.
With Project Kuiper taking up significant capacity over the next few years, analysts expect the industry to face some launch-related delays.
“Come 2024, 2025, when all these mega constellations need a launch, there is going to be a real problem,” Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck told reporters, referring to the networks of communications satellites being built by SpaceX, AST Spacemobile and OneWeb.
Rocket Lab is among a new breed of firms building miniaturized propulsion systems to cash in on an exponential rise in demand for putting compact satellites in low-Earth orbit.
Last year, satellites launched by OneWeb and SpaceX accounted for the launch of about three-quarters of small satellites, industry analytics firm BryceTech said.
Still, Russia maintained a 16 percent share of the global launch market over the past five years, historical databases show.
Its share was actually larger, given that Soyuz rockets were also launched under a since-suspended French-Russian joint venture named Starsem.
About two-thirds of Soyuz launches were commercial or in support of the International Space Station, while the rest were for Russia’s domestic customers, Quilty Analytics analyst Caleb Henry said.
If access to Russia’s capabilities are lost due to Western sanctions on the country for its invasion of Ukraine, companies in Europe and the US would have to quickly step in to meet demand.
However, that might not be all that easy, given the complexities and challenges involved in building and launching new rockets.
“It is always possible that new vehicles will come online faster, thanks to improved manufacturing techniques, but precedent suggests it will be difficult to achieve high launch cadences for the next few years,” Henry said.
Beck said the launch crisis would also apply to smaller satellites used to image the Earth and conduct scientific observation that usually share a ride to orbit on a rocket with other satellites.
Delayed launches can affect satellite Internet companies in multiple ways. There is a risk of losing launch rights if they do not adhere to a US Federal Communications Commission-mandated deadline, while some firms might not see return on investment unless their satellite is in orbit.
United Launch Alliance, a joint venture between Boeing Co and Lockheed Martin, is set to replace its Russian engines with those made by Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin.
Still, Western launch companies have a long way to go.
The picturesque Lac des Brenets between France and Switzerland has dried up after a record-breaking hot summer, leaving locals crying out for help to save the lake. Indeed, the words “HELP” and “SOS” have been scratched out in the weeds now flourishing on the exposed lake bed. The drought has ruined pleasure boat tourism, while some question whether the lake will ever return to enduring full health. “It’s absolutely heartbreaking,” said historian David Favre, who lives in Les Brenets. “As children, we used to spend all our summers swimming at the beach, having fun by the water, diving, jumping in and sometimes even
STRAIN ON TIES: The police arrested a 20-year-old man who matched the description of a suspect caught on CCTV leaving a hotel in Naha with the victim’s belongings A US Marine stationed on Japan’s southern island of Okinawa was arrested on suspicion of the murder of a Japanese woman, police said yesterday. The suspect “killed the 39-year-old woman at a hotel in Naha and stole her wallet on Saturday,” a local police spokesman said. US Ambassador George Glass posted on social media that he had spoken with Japan’s foreign ministry and Okinawa’s governor to offer “our sincere condolences and pledging full cooperation as the investigation continues.” Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the crime “exceptionally brutal and vicious” on X. The government has urged the US “to provide maximum cooperation
A US lawmaker has called on Starbucks to close its first stores in Xinjiang, China, calling it a “morally bankrupt decision” to do business in a region where Uighurs face repression. China denies widespread accusations about abuses of the Uighurs, a mainly Muslim people, saying its policies there were aimed at combating terrorism, separatism and religious extremism. Starbucks opened its first two stores this week in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi, including one at the city centre’s grand bazaar and a second at its international airport. John Moolenaar, chairman of the Select Committee on China of the House of Representatives, called on Starbucks to “immediately
The winner of this year’s Fat Bear Week has been crowned after a nail-biting final — and it’s the son of a former champion. Backpack, a 20-year-old male beloved by rangers in Alaska for his quiet determination, edged out female fellow finalist Dancing Queen in the annual ursine eating competition at Katmai National Park. More than 2.3 million people voted in the week-long competition that sees bears unwittingly jostle in a series of head-to-head contests to decide which one of them has most impressively piled on the pounds ahead of hibernation. Viewers watch a livestream of the enormous animals as they scoop salmon
RSS