The EU is wargaming for the fall of British Prime Minister Theresa May amid a complete collapse in confidence in her after a week of chaos over Brexit, a leaked document seen by the Observer revealed.
In the run-up to a crucial summit of EU leaders where May is to ask for a delay to Brexit, Brussels fears there is little hope that she will succeed in passing her deal this week and is preparing itself for a change of the guard in Downing Street.
A diplomatic note of a meeting of EU ambassadors and senior officials revealed an attempt to ensure that any new British prime minister cannot immediately unpick the withdrawal agreement should May be replaced in the months ahead.
Some hardline Brexiters want to replace her with a leader who would back a harder split with Brussels.
According to the minutes, European Commission Secretary-General Martin Selmayr, who is known as a master of strategy, asked: “Imagine that they have a new Brexit secretary or prime minister — what then? Article 50 has been agreed and the process has ended. It must be clear that the starting point is not a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement.”
The moves in Brussels came before another critical and highly unpredictable week in the Brexit process in which May is expected to launch her third attempt to secure support for her beleaguered deal.
British Cabinet ministers remained locked in talks this weekend with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, which is seen as vital in building a narrow majority for May’s deal and which on Saturday said that there were “still issues to be addressed.”
More Tory lawmakers opposing May’s Brexit deal have told party whips that they would back it if the prime minister announced that she would quit this summer.
The ebbing trust within her own party is matched by the mood in Brussels, where, according to the leaked notes, one diplomat said: “The clear feeling is that there is a complete lack of confidence in the British prime minister to deliver on this deal.”
Selmayr suggested that May would be asked to write into her letter of request for a delay that the UK would not interfere in long-term EU planning, such as the bloc’s budget, during the extra period of membership — and that this should apply to her “successors” in Downing Street.
There were glimmers of hope for May on Saturday as some Tory rebels, including Daniel Kawczynski, a member of the European Research Group of hardline Brexiters, revealed that they were preparing to back the deal.
Senior government sources said it was possible that May would refuse to hold a further meaningful vote on her deal should there be no chance of success.
However, she is likely to hold it tomorrow.
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