Renewables and battery storage will replace gas as South Australia’s main source of electricity within eight years, according to industry analysts.
The state’s energy transition could be a “leading case study on managing a power system in transition for other mature markets to follow,” a report by Wood Mackenzie said.
The news comes as the South Australian government presses ahead with plans to build its own new gas generator and AGL Energy pursues plans to build a new gas power station to replace part of its aging Torrens Island gas generator.
“Currently, South Australia’s peak loads are managed by open-cycle gas turbine [OCGT] plants,” Wood Mackenzie Asia-Pacific power and renewables principal analyst Bikal Pokharel said. “But, by 2025, battery storage would be cheaper than OCGTs in managing peak loads ... OCGTs would then be relegated as emergency back-ups.”
According to the analysis by Wood Mackenzie and Greentech Media Research, battery costs are expected to fall by 50 percent by 2025.
“If current cost trends continue, 2025 could very well see renewables and batteries overtake rival generating alternatives in dominating South Australia’s power system, and the region could become a leading case study on managing a power system in transition for other mature markets to follow,” Pokharel said.
The researchers estimated that 1,600MWh of battery storage would be enough to satisfy South Australia’s needs by 2025. That is four times the capacity and 12 times the storage of the new Tesla Hornsdale facility announced this month, but would be a very different type of battery system since that facility is designed for energy security, not for residual peak supply.
The price of battery storage would drive gas out of the system, the analysts said, but so too would the high penetration of wind and solar.
Assuming all committed renewables projects proceed, 67 percent of South Australia’s capacity would be provided by renewable generation by 2025.
That capacity would require dispatchable power to make up for the intermittent nature of wind and solar, but the analysts said gas would not be able to provide that service.
“With significantly increased renewable penetration and hence the intermittency, monthly and hourly gas demand fluctuations will be increasingly pronounced,” Pokharel said. “Current gas supply and transportation terms cannot meet this type of demand profile.”
As a result, they found that expensive diesel generators might become economic since the fuel can be easily stored and made available quickly when needed.
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