A reborn opposition is gearing up to contest Myanmar’s elections without democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, but analysts warn the military junta is unlikely to loosen its grip on power anytime soon.
Experts welcomed the decision by Myanmar’s ruling generals to allow the registration of the new National Democratic Force (NDF), which is made up of former members of Aung San Suu Kyi’s disbanded National League for Democracy (NLD).
However, they said the splinter group could struggle to fill the NLD’s shoes ahead of this year’s election, Myanmar’s first in 20 years, which is widely feared to be a sham aimed at shoring up the junta’s half-century grip on power.
Former Australian ambassador Trevor Wilson said it could be “some years” before the military loosen their stranglehold on Myanmar by implanting trusted figures into a civilian government.
“I have heard them say for years that they are a temporary government,” he said. “Now it looks as if they are going to hand power to someone who looks awfully like them, but who is just wearing different colored clothing.”
He said that he is “not optimistic about non-government parties,” including the newly registered NDF.
Nearly 40 parties have so far been allowed to register for the election, rumored to be held in October or November, but the NLD — the country’s most powerful opposition party — will not appear on ballot papers.
It opted to boycott the vote because of rules that would have forced it to expel Aung San Suu Kyi, who — quoted by her lawyer — said she would “never accept” her party registering because the elections laws were “unjust.”
However, the breakaway NDF has put itself at odds with this decision, urging people to vote and saying the poll could herald change in the country.
Discord between the two camps surfaced recently when former top NLD members accused the NDF of copying their party symbol — a bamboo hat, but in an interview, NDF chairman Than Nyein said the party would welcome any former NLD members who wanted to participate in the election and vowed to continue Aung San Suu Kyi’s struggle for democracy.
Political analyst Aung Naing Oo said the group could slowly gain a foothold, but stressed the elections were a “very small step in a long road to democracy.”
He said some former NLD members were actively campaigning against the new party by branding them “undemocratic” and urging people not to vote.
But he believes participation was the right choice and forecast that the poll will allow “some sort of civilian participation in politics,” allowing people to look at subjects such as health and policy.
“The military has neglected all these issues, they have worked for their own survival,” Aung Naing Oo said.
The NDF was welcomed by other opposition groups such as the Democratic Party (Myanmar), whose general secretary Than Than Nu — daughter of the country’s first prime minister, U Nu — said it added strength to the democracy movement.
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