While Canada’s opposition Liberals are threatening to trigger a new election to protest against government handling of the economic crisis, there is no guarantee Canadians will be voting any time soon.
Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff, buoyed by recent polling numbers, demanded on Sunday that the minority Conservative government make unemployment payments more generous to help Canadians ride out the recession.
“If the government will work with me, then we’ll get it done. If they won’t. Then we’ll have to have an election,” he said after a party conference confirmed him as the new leader.
But analysts said Ignatieff’s tough words were more of a warning to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper than a genuine declaration that he is ready to bring down the Conservative government.
They pointed to a host of reasons why an election might not happen soon.
First, Liberal support, though higher, is still not strong enough to guarantee even a narrow victory. And to bring the Conservatives down the Liberals need the support of both the other opposition parties in the House of Commons, neither of which may be in the mood to co-operate.
Nik Nanos, head of the Nanos Research polling firm, said an election now — Canada’s fourth in five years — would “really be a crap shoot for either one of the main parties.”
Two polls over the weekend put public support for the Liberals at 36 percent compared with 33 percent for the Conservatives — a gap far too small to ensure even a narrow minority government.
“If anyone was looking at the polling numbers ... and the general political environment, the conclusion would be that this isn’t a good time to have an election. There are too many risks for all the parties,” Nanos said.
Ignatieff became Liberal leader last December, after the party was humiliated in the October election. One reason for the poor performance was that, under then leader Stephane Dion, the party had regularly backed Harper on confidence votes rather than risk going to the polls.
This consistent support allowed the opposition New Democrats and the Bloc Quebecois to portray the Liberals as weak, further damaging the party’s standing.
By making it clear he is no longer ready to automatically back the government, Ignatieff is forcing the other two parties to decide whether they want to keep Harper in power.
“They seem to be getting cozy with the Conservatives. I sometimes wonder whether there’s a little coalition forming there. Mr. Harper is fighting for his political survival,” Ignatieff told CTV television on Sunday.
Polls show popular support is slipping for both the New Democrats and the Bloc, which only fields candidates in Francophone Quebec.
Richard Schultz, a professor of politics at Montreal’s McGill University, said this means a quick vote is unlikely.
“He [Ignatieff] has turned the tables on the New Democrats and the Bloc. They don’t want an election, so they’re going to be the ones forced to support the government in some way,” he said.
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