North Korea is ready to make a deal but it won't abandon its nuclear-weapons program unless it gets significant security guarantees and long-term economic aid, the top UN envoy to the communist nation said.
Maurice Strong told a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum on Thursday that the US and North Korea both have a sense that time is on their side -- but that he thinks they are wrong and "the crunch will come this year."
Other panelists, including US Representative Jim Leach, a Republican, were less certain.
Strong, who is Secretary-General Kofi Annan's personal envoy, said North Korea is a lot further "down the track" toward developing nuclear weapons than Iraq was, and UN nuclear agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei said "it is almost certain that they have nuclear weapons."
If nothing happens, Strong warned, there will be "almost a de facto acceptance" of North Korea's ability to develop and deliver nuclear weapons, which Pyongyang would prefer.
"The stakes really are very high," ElBaradei said. "We need all to bite the bullet and get a settlement as soon as we can. Everybody will lose" if there is no settlement.
Strong said the US has been very focused on getting rid of the North's nuclear weapons program.
"The real question is does the United States really want to complete an agreement with a regime that many people in the US do not believe is legitimate and want to see gone? The US position so far has been to negotiate" and President George W. Bush has said he wants a diplomatic solution, Strong said.
But an agreement remains elusive.
Beijing has been trying to organize a second round of six-party talks involving the US, North Korea and the other interested parties, China, Japan, South Korea and Russia.
The US has said it is willing to give some form of security guarantees, but North Korea says this falls short of the non-aggression pact they are demanding, Strong said.
The North Koreans also want simultaneous actions -- with their first step of freezing their nuclear program matched by corresponding action on the US side.
But the Bush administration wants the North Koreans to roll back their program before it takes any action, he said.
"The North Koreans are ready for a deal. There is no question about that. But they are not going to abandon their program unless there is a significant security and economic support package," Strong said.
ElBaradei said "whether they are a democracy or a dictatorship ... they need security assurances and they need mainstream trade and economic relations" as well as food.
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