China’s population is rapidly aging and moving toward a low-fertility society, with the demographic dividend that fueled three decades of rapid economic growth now turning into a demographic burden, according to a Taiwanese researcher.
In an article titled “Observations on China’s Population Structure Issues” published on the Mainland Affairs Council’s latest Briefing on Mainland China and Cross-Strait Situation, Institute for National Defense and Security Research associate researcher Wang Chan-hsi (王占璽) noted that since 2016, China’s birthrate has declined sharply. Last year, the number of newborns fell to 7.92 million, only 44 percent of the 2016 level.
It not only dropped below the projected thresholds of 9 million and 8 million, but was also the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, he said, adding China’s total population has fallen to 1.40489 billion, recording four consecutive years of negative growth.
Photo: Wang Zhao, AFP
China’s birthrate is rapidly declining, and it could soon match the levels of Taiwan, Japan and South Korea within the next three to five years, Wang said.
As the number of newborns drops, 20,000 kindergartens closed in 2024, resulting in the loss of over 240,000 preschool teaching jobs, he said.
Primary schools are also facing an annual loss of more than 2 million students since 2023, he said, adding that many provinces and cities in China are seeing a rapid contraction of teaching positions, with increasing pressure on educators to switch roles, further escalating unemployment issues tied to its declining birthrate.
The gender distribution of the population shows a surplus of men in rural areas and a surplus of women in cities, resulting in a two-way imbalance, he said.
He cited data from China’s 2021 Seventh National Census as showing the gender ratio in urban areas is 106 (106 males for every 100 females), while in rural areas it reaches 120.
Nearly 30 million unmarried young men live in rural China, while unmarried young women in first- and second-tier cities might number more than 20 million, he said, adding this gender imbalance further exacerbates China’s already low marriage and birthrates.
China’s aging population, coupled with the challenge of “growing old before getting rich” and weak consumer spending, is expected to trigger significant economic and social consequences, he said.
While China’s aging rate is rapidly approaching that of other East Asian countries, its overall wealth remains relatively insufficient, he said.
Moreover, the wealth distribution among older people is highly uneven, he added, stating that of the more than 320 million retirees, 180 million rural pensioners receive less than 200 RMB per month, while only about 17 million urban retirees receive over 5,000 RMB a month, accounting for just 5.3 percent of the total retired population.
Over the medium to long term, the trends of declining birthrates and rapid aging are expected to become major obstacles to sustainable growth, with the potential to disrupt economic and social structures more severely than anticipated, he said.
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