China does not plan to invade Taiwan next year and seeks to control the nation without the use of force, the US intelligence community said yesterday, striking a measured tone on one of the world's biggest potential flashpoints.
The assessment in the intelligence agencies' annual report on global threats comes as Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan with frequent military drills, even as US President Donald Trump has played down the risk of Chinese military action while he is in office.
The Pentagon late last year said that the US military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by next year, the centenary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army, and was refining options to take Taiwan by "brute force" if needed.
Photo: Reuters
"China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a US attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China's rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible," the US intelligence agencies said in the report.
The US "assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification," the report said.
It reiterated previous views that the PLA was making "steady but uneven" progress on capabilities it could use to capture the democratically governed nation.
Taiwan would continue to monitor China's activities and "remain vigilant at all times," the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, Taiwan's de facto embassy in Washington, said in a statement.
"China has never abandoned the use of force against Taiwan, and its continued military intimidation and gray-zone operations pose serious threats not only to Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability," it said.
China's embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump, who has repeatedly touted his "great relationship" with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), has downplayed the threat of the Chinese drills around Taiwan and said Xi told him that he would not attack Taiwan while the US president is in office — something Beijing has never confirmed.
Despite concerns in the US and abroad about Trump's inclination to back Taiwan, his administration in December last year unveiled a record US$11 billion sale of weapons for Taipei, angering Beijing, which says such arms deals must end.
Nonetheless, some Japanese officials have worried that Trump might be prepared to soften support for Taiwan in pursuit of a trade accord with China, a move they fear could embolden Beijing and spark conflict in an increasingly militarized East Asia.
Tokyo had been unnerved by muted US rhetorical support for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after her remarks last year that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese military response.
Trump reportedly told her privately not to escalate the ensuing diplomatic row with Beijing.
In yesterday’s report, the US intelligence agencies called Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan a "significant shift" for a Japanese leader, a framing that is likely to irk Tokyo just a day ahead of a delicate visit by her to the White House.
Takaichi has maintained that her stance is consistent with Japan's longstanding policy.
"China is employing multidomain coercive pressure that probably will intensify through 2026, aimed both at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in a Taiwan crisis," the report said.
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