Taiwanese seafood trader Jay Yen used to import 2,000 tonnes of shrimp from Honduras per year before the Central American country cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 2023.
Now, it is just the odd “container or two,” but that could change if Honduras’ next president acts on an election pledge to forge closer ties with Taiwan.
Tegucigalpa’s decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing and scrap a free trade agreement with Taiwan was a huge blow for the Honduran shrimp industry.
Photo: I-Hwa Cheng, AFP
Imports plunged from about 13,000 tonnes in 2022 to nearly 4,000 tonnes last year, Taiwanese data showed, as a 20 percent tariff made Honduran shrimp more expensive.
A diplomatic reversal would be a “good thing” for business and Taiwanese consumers, Yen said.
“For us, we [would] have more choices to source white shrimp... And the end consumer will have more choices,” he added.
National Party candidate Nasry Asfura and Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla, who are neck and neck in the Honduran presidential race, have signaled support for switching ties from Beijing to Taipei.
A switch back would be a rare diplomatic win for Taiwan, but officials are responding cautiously.
“We are taking a proactive and open attitude,” Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) said in response to questions from lawmakers.
Taiwan was in contact with Asfura’s and Nasralla’s teams, Lin said, adding that “whatever we do must be beneficial to them and to us.”
Honduras’ move in 2023 to end decades of diplomatic relations with Taipei followed negotiations with Beijing on building a hydroelectric dam.
Taiwan at the time said the switch was part of China’s tactics to coerce and intimidate Taipei’s allies.
Since then, China has expanded its economic influence over Honduras, but has drawn criticism for flooding the country with cheap goods, employing Chinese workers for infrastructure projects and failing to buy enough shrimp.
It has also cost tens of thousands of jobs, as dozens of companies closed, National Association of Aquaculturists of Honduras executive director Javier Amador said.
Shipments to Taiwan were more than six times the volume sent to China, “even with the disadvantage of paying tariffs,” Amador said.
On the campaign trail, Nasralla said: “Taiwan has been our great ally for more than 60 years. What has China given us?”
However, the Honduran presidential candidates’ support for Taiwan could be a “negotiation tactic,” National Chengchi University Department of Diplomacy associate professor Fabricio Fonseca said.
“If China is sensing that they are really serious about this, then, of course, there might be many offers that China can make,” Fonseca said. “If, in the end, they [Asfura or Nasralla] decide not to stick to this campaign promise, they have something to show in return.”
The US could be a deciding factor, if it were to help Taiwan woo back Honduras, he added.
Honduran coffee trader Elias Argueta said he hoped his country renews ties with Taiwan, where he lives with his wife and young daughter.
Argueta, 34, began importing beans from his parents’ farms in Honduras in 2020 and selling them in Taiwan, where coffee beans from Guatemala and Colombia are popular.
Since the diplomatic break-up, it has been harder to secure new customers, because the government stopped promoting Honduran coffee beans.
If relations are restored, “people will be more open to take Honduran coffee, and definitely the official channels will open again here in Taiwan,” Argueta said.
“We do have a very good quality,” he added.
Yen said mending ties between Honduras and Taiwan would not mean an immediate snap back in trade volumes, but it would provide a catalyst.
“Even if Taiwan does rebuild the relationship with Honduras and sign a [free-trade agreement], it might take at least six months to almost a year for the industry to rebuild, for us to restart the business,” Yen said. “But we’re looking forward to it.”
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