The possibility of China launching another large-scale military exercise or using Taiwan as an excuse to exert pressure on other countries cannot be ruled out, a Taiwanese security official said yesterday.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, made the remarks in the context of the diplomatic spat between Japan and China.
China launched retaliatory measures in response to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments last month relating Japan’s security to a Taiwan contingency.
Photo: AP
Although Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi (王毅) is recognized as an expert with a good understanding of Japan, Beijing’s responses to Takaichi’s remarks departed wildly from diplomatic professionalism and rational decisionmaking, the official said.
The situation has deteriorated since the remarks, they said.
Beijing has accused Takaichi of committing nine offenses, such as provoking the sovereignty of China, interfering with the internal affairs of China, and disrupting the international order, the official said, adding such accusations are simply projections of China’s own misconduct onto Japan.
There is speculation that the uncharacteristically antagonistic response is caused by internal pressures from domestic society due to ineffective governmental leadership or China’s ailing economy, they said.
Beijing might be attempting to divert the Chinese people’s attention over its questionable governance by attempting to stoke nationalism against other countries in the public, the official said.
Taiwan is at risk if China begins basing its decisions on something other than rationality, they said.
The official also pointed to the oddly muted commissioning ceremony of the Fujian, China’s third aircraft carrier and first designed indigenously.
While the other two aircraft carriers’ inaugural ceremonies were grandly held with flag officers lining up to pay tribute, the head of China’s Southern Theater Command General Wu Yanan (吳亞男) and other major generals were absent from the aircraft carrier’s commissioning, they said, while China’s state-run media delayed the live broadcast of the ceremony, and the atmosphere appeared unusually tense and non-celebratory.
While Beijing’s decisionmaking system seemed dysfunctional and its diplomatic signals are mixed, the situation must be closely monitored leading up to Dec. 13, China’s National Memorial Day for the Nanjing Massacre, the official said.
Beijing might use the memorial of the atrocity to stir national sentiment as it finds itself diplomatically feuding with Japan in the present, they said.
If China finds no graceful exit from the dispute, it could turn to military intimidation to attempt to force Japan or other countries in the region into concessions, the official said.
Based on experience, China might launch a large-scale military exercise, using Taiwan as a pretext to exert pressure on other countries, similar to its “Joint Sword” series of exercises last year, they said.
All countries in the region should keep a close eye on the situation, as Beijing’s decisionmaking is neither transparent nor democratic, and has become irrational and confusing, the official said.
Beijing is a hostile nation and considers invading Taiwan one of its major political imperatives, they said.
For Beijing, two main priorities are preventing Taiwan from enhancing its national security laws and regulations, and hindering its defense procurements, they said.
With those two goals achieved, Beijing could take overt action against Taiwan, the official said.
For Taiwan, the goal is clear, which is to use all possible methods to render China unable to effectively invade Taiwan, they said.
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