China’s campaign to deprive Taiwan of diplomatic recognition might have a rare reversal this month when voters in Honduras choose their next president.
The two front-runners in tomorrow’s election both pledge to sever ties with Beijing and re-establish them with Taipei.
The candidates, former Honduran vice president Salvador Nasralla and former Tegucigalpa mayor Nasry Asfura, also want to forge a closer relationship with the US, the nation’s top trading partner and main destination for migrants.
Photo: Reuters
Nasralla led a poll last month with Asfura in second ahead of tomorrow’s single-round vote.
US President Donald Trump called on Hondurans to back Asfura, saying in a post on social media that he was the only one of the trio with whom he could work.
Honduran President Xiomara Castro established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 2023, ending ties with Taiwan, saying that the change would bring trade and financing opportunities to the Central American nation of 11 million people.
Castro is not eligible for re-election, but her ally, ruling party candidate Rixi Moncada, would continue to recognize Beijing. She placed third in the poll.
The vote is the latest test of whether the region is aligning itself with Trump as he pressures trade partners to distance themselves from Beijing. On Sunday, Chileans sent conservative Jose Antonio Kast to a presidential runoff while, last month, pro-business senator Rodrigo Paz won Bolivia’s presidential runoff. Both candidates pledged to seek better relations with Washington.
Nasralla and Asfura blamed Castro’s decision for a decline in some exports. Taiwan used to be the biggest market for Honduran shrimp, but imports have slumped since diplomatic ties were cut.
They also say that Castro’s promises of Chinese investment boosting development failed to materialize.
The government in Beijing uses offers of loans, infrastructure investments and aid to induce the few remaining governments that still recognize Taipei to switch, while Taiwan uses similar methods to persuade them to stay. Over the past decade, Panama, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador have all recognized Beijing, but it is unusual for countries to switch allegiance in the opposite direction.
“Economically, the relationship with China has been a bad deal for Honduras despite the expectations, so it’s a pocket-book issue, but it’s also about signaling that we want to align ourselves with the West and the United States,” said Evan Ellis, a professor at the Pennsylvania-based Army War College specializing in Latin America. “If there’s one way to get on President Trump’s radar screen, and [US] Secretary [of State Marco] Rubio’s, in a very positive way, I think it’s that flip.”
The US remains by far the largest buyer of Honduran goods, while exports to China account for less than 1 percent of the total.
After a visit to Beijing in 2023, Castro said that China would finance infrastructure such as a hydroelectric dam and that both nations would sign a free-trade agreement.
However, the deals stalled.
“The decision to cut ties with Taiwan and establish them with China has not resulted in the flows of capital the government may have anticipated,” said Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America program at the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue. “Projects have not come to pass.”
Nasralla and Asfura have also promised to cut ties with Venezuela if elected, saying they do not recognize Nicolas Maduro as president. Castro’s government has backed Maduro and criticized the US military buildup in the Caribbean.
The lead-up to tomorrow’s vote has been tense, which both sides accusing the other of planning fraud.
The ruling party accused the opposition of seeking to steal the election and has taken aim at electoral judges. They also installed a temporary congress of loyalists, while opposition lawmakers formed a separate legislative body.
The US and the Organization of American States expressed concern about the electoral process.
US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said on X that the US would “respond swiftly and decisively to anyone who undermines the integrity of the democratic process in Honduras.”
Voting centers are scheduled to open at 7am and close at 5pm, with initial results expected after 8pm, the Honduran National Board of Elections said.
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