China’s rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal has raised the prospect that Beijing could resort to “nuclear blackmail” or even nuclear warfare against Western nations should they intervene in a conflict over Taiwan, much like the Kremlin’s warnings during its invasion of Ukraine, defense experts said.
At a Sept. 3 military parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, China unveiled three nuclear-capable missiles: the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile and the DF-61 surface-to-surface intercontinental missile.
Analysts described the display as signaling China’s emergence as a potential “nuclear triad” power — capable of delivering nuclear strikes from air, land and sea — a development that has put democratic nations on alert.
Photo: Reuters
Until recently, China lacked the capability to conduct airborne nuclear strikes.
However, a Sept. 29 New York Times report quoted Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based foreign affairs think tank, as saying that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would “have a nuclear dimension,” particularly if the US intervenes or threatens to do so.
The same report cited evidence of increased missile activity at the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force’s 611th Brigade base in China’s Anhui Province, about 700km from Taiwan, where nuclear-capable Dongfeng-26 (DF-26) missiles have been deployed.
With an estimated range of 5,000km, the DF-26 could reach US military bases on Guam and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region.
Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Security Studies Program, said that China’s advanced tactical nuclear weapons, such as the DF-26, provide a “more credible” deterrent than its strategic warheads, as Washington might view them as weapons Beijing could realistically employ in response to a US tactical nuclear strike.
“Not only does it mitigate US escalation dominance in terms of the overall capability, but it also gives [China] more realistic capabilities to retaliate in kind against potential US employment of tactical nuclear weapons,” Heginbotham said.
Previously, China’s nuclear posture was limited to a purely strategic retaliatory capability, meaning that any nuclear response against the US would have been tantamount to a “suicidal” act, he said, as it would likely trigger an overwhelming US counterstrike and result in massive civilian casualties.
“All of this contributes to China’s ability to wage conventional war ‘safely’ — with less fear of a US nuclear response — against Taiwan,” Heginbotham said.
Asked whether China might act on its nuclear threats if the US intervenes directly in a Taiwan Strait conflict, Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌), an associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the possibility cannot be ruled out.
He outlined two potential scenarios in which China could employ nuclear weapons in a regional conflict: if Beijing feels cornered, or if the US were to use nuclear weapons first.
“As China expands and diversifies its nuclear arsenal and strengthens its strike capabilities, its theater commanders will have greater flexibility in using force,” Shu said.
“That could lead to changes in its ‘no first use’ nuclear policy,” he said, referring to China’s long-standing stance on the use of nuclear weapons, which it has maintained since 1964.
According to a US Department of Defense report released last year on China’s military power, Beijing possessed more than 600 operational nuclear warheads as of last year and is projected to have more than 1,000 by 2030.
Another factor influencing Beijing’s potential decision to use nuclear weapons is its confidence in the strength of its defenses against nuclear retaliation, Shu said.
“When two adversaries have equally sharp spears, the one with the stronger shield will strike first,” he said.
Citing the US’ planned “Golden Dome” multilayered missile defense system — designed to intercept and destroy ballistic, hypersonic and cruise missiles — Shu said that if completed, the system could shield the US homeland from Chinese nuclear attacks and limit Beijing’s ability to engage in nuclear coercion.
Yang Tai-yuan (楊太源), chairman of the Secure Taiwan Associate Corp, said that the nuclear developments could make the US more hesitant to commit troops to Taiwan’s defense in the event of a Chinese invasion.
“The Chinese Communist Party likely learned the tactic of nuclear blackmail from Russia during the war in Ukraine and could threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons against major powers that intervene in regional conflicts, including in the Taiwan Strait,” Yang said.
If the US were to send troops to assist in Taiwan’s defense, China could use its tactical nuclear warheads to threaten US forces stationed across the western Pacific, he said.
“The US would likely take such threats seriously and carefully weigh its options, whether to deploy troops to the Taiwan Strait or limit its response to diplomatic actions, such as expressing solidarity through the United Nations, to avoid direct confrontation,” he added.
“We need to think seriously and assume that if a conflict breaks out, we must be prepared to defend ourselves independently,” Yang said. “What should we strengthen? What should we prepare? Those are the questions we must confront — rather than simply hoping the US will come to our aid.”
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