The Ministry of National Defense on Friday submitted this year’s report on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to the Legislative Yuan, outlining possible scenarios China could adopt if it launches a campaign against Taiwan.
China has stepped up military pressure over the past few years by deploying aircraft and warships for patrols around Taiwan, staging drone incursions and holding targeted exercises to demonstrate its ability to strike the nation, the ministry said.
China has also used “gray zone” tactics to blur battlefield boundaries and shorten response times, while sending carrier strike groups into the Western Pacific to showcase its anti-access/area-denial capabilities, it added.
Photo courtesy of the Ministry of National Defense
China’s posture is designed to maintain deterrence and create wartime readiness, it said.
On the possible timing of an attack, the ministry said that according to Article 8 of China’s “Anti-Secession” Law, Beijing could use “non-peaceful means” if “Taiwanese independence forces” cause separation, a major incident threatens a split, or peaceful unification is deemed impossible.
By comparison, the US Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power Report outlined six potential triggers: a formal independence declaration, other pro-independence actions, unrest in Taiwan, nuclear weapons acquisition, stalled unification talks, or foreign military intervention.
In its report, the ministry outlined four possible scenarios in which the PLA could escalate from training to actual combat: holding targeted drills near Taiwan and its outlying islands, even in restricted waters within 24 nautical miles (44.4km); carrying out regular patrols, long-range deployments and joint air-sea drills between the first and second island chains to simulate strikes on Taiwan’s military and infrastructure; declaring no-sail zones for live-fire or blockade exercises; and deploying coast guard and militia vessels to board, seize or obstruct ships near Taiwan’s ports.
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