The Central Weather Administration (CWA) and National Cheng Kung University have developed a system powered by artificial intelligence (AI) that can predict rogue waves, expected to be rolled out nationwide by the end of the year, the agency said today.
Rogue waves, also known as “coastal freak waves,” are large, unpredictable surface waves that pose a serious risk to public safety.
Many factors can cause rogue waves, although their precise mechanisms, timing and locations are under-researched, university Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering professor Doong Dong-jiing (董東璟) said.
Photo: CNA
The system is the first of its kind in Taiwan and is a pioneering technology worldwide, he added.
The system is currently being used in New Taipei City and national scenic areas along the north and northeast coast under the Tourism Administration’s jurisdiction, CWA Deputy Administrator Fong Chin-tzu (馮欽賜) said.
Over the past 25 years, Taiwan has experienced an average of 17 rogue waves annually, sweeping an average of 30 people per year out to sea, CWA data showed.
The CWA began by monitoring the occurrence of rogue waves and building a database, which was then used to train an AI system to give more accurate predictions, Fong said.
The system, which began development in 2017, uses cameras to monitor Taiwan’s coast and identify abnormal waves, combining information with data provided by the CWA’s wave models and AI prediction technology to assess the likelihood of a rogue wave occurring within 24 hours.
One of the main causes of rogue waves are swells, so swell data is also incorporated into machine learning, said Pan Chi (潘琦), head of the CWA’s Marine Meteorology and Climate Division.
The CWA has already established at least one abnormal wave monitoring station in 15 coastal cities and counties across Taiwan, expected to reach 16 by the end of the year, he said.
If an area needs additional monitoring systems, it can request assistance from the CWA, he added.
The New Taipei City Fire Department and the Rueifang District Office have already allocated a budget to install an additional warning system at Bianfudong (蝙蝠洞), or the “bat cave,” in Rueifang District (瑞芳), an area prone to rogue waves, Pan said.
If a dangerous wave is detected, the new system would immediately notify disaster prevention personnel to safely evacuate visitors, he said.
It is yet to be decided whether the public would receive message alerts of rogue waves, as it would involve the Disaster Prevention and Protection Act (防災法), Pan said.
Currently, the CWA provides forecasting information while on-site responses are handled by local authorities and relevant agencies, he added.
Early warning information is to be made available on the CWA Web site and weather app, Pan said.
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