Thu, Jun 19, 2025 page3

• Cyberattacks, cut cables omens of conflict: strategist

  • Staff writer, with CNA
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  A Japanese cybersecurity strategist at a security conference in Rome voiced concern that China’s cyberattacks and its cutting of undersea communications cables in the Taiwan Strait could be omens of possible conflict in the region.

  Mihoko Matsubara, chief cybersecurity strategist at Japan’s Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp, said during a panel discussion at a NATO Defense College Foundation conference on Tuesday that a hot war had yet to break out in the Taiwan Strait, but cyberattacks had already begun.

  A Cisco systems report in March confirmed that Chinese state-sponsored actors “have been attacking Taiwanese critical infrastructure services, and the tactics and targets are very similar to that of [one of those actors] Volt Typhoon,” she said.

  

  Mihoko Matsubara, chief cybersecurity strategist at Japan’s Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp, speaks at a panel discussion at a NATO Defense College Foundation conference in Rome on Tuesday.

  Photo: CNA

  Volt Typhoon is a hacking campaign linked to the Chinese government.

  Their ultimate goal was “to cause chaos, to create disruptions in the decisionmaking processes, and to deter and delay the deployment of the US forces to the region in the case of conflicts in the Taiwan Strait,” she said.

  “So it is very concerning, and we may have been already seeing a potential precursor to conflict in the Taiwan Strait,” she said.

  There have also been examples of the Volt Typhoon group penetrating infrastructure in the US, India and Singapore, but none yet in Japan or Taiwan, Matsubara said.

  Another “concerning” indicator in the region that might also portend conflict was the cutting of undersea cables, she said.

  While cables can be damaged any time and anywhere in the world, such incidents have happened more frequently near the Taiwan Strait compared with the rest of the world, with the frequency going up this year, which is “strange,” she said.

  Matsubara did not rule out conflict coming within the “Davidson Window” of 2027.

  The “Davidson Window” refers to former US Indo-Pacific commander Philip Davidson’s 2021 remark that China’s threat might “manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years.”

  Matsubara said the 2027 date has been repeated by several US officials, including former CIA director William Burns, US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

  Meanwhile, she urged Europe to take security in the Taiwan Strait seriously, noting that Taiwan produces more than 60 percent of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90 percent of its advanced chips.

  In addition, more than 20 percent of global trade travels through the Taiwan Strait and 30,000 European citizens currently reside in Taiwan.

  “Are you sure you can ... relocate all of the 30,000 European citizens safely and securely from Taiwan to Europe if anything happened to the Taiwan Strait?” she asked.

  The high-level conference, titled “Indo-Pacific 2025: Prevention and Dialogue,” was held in Rome on Tuesday and yesterday, bringing together international experts to explore practical initiatives, the NATO foundation said.

  The conference is focused on enhancing cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners, countering hybrid threats, and supporting a stable, rules-based regional order through NATO’s cooperative frameworks, it said.
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