Taiwan must take steps to avoid being blamed for escalation if it responds with force to Chinese naval incursions into its territorial waters, a former US Navy intelligence head said.
The best way to handle violent tactical encounters is to shape the information space early — exposing Chinese actions and framing them as aggressors, provocateurs and a threat not just to Taiwan, but to the entire region, former US Office of Naval Intelligence commander Mike Studeman said on Friday.
Studeman — who reportedly visited Taiwan in 2020 while serving as director of the J2 intelligence division at the US Indo-Pacific Command, making him one of the highest-ranking US military officers to visit Taiwan over the past few years — was asked by the Central News Agency about a tabletop war game held in Taipei last week that simulated a 2030 scenario in which Chinese navy ships intrude into Taiwan’s territorial waters amid escalating tensions.
Photo: Tu Chien-jung, Taipei Times
In the war game, Taiwan chose not to immediately strike Chinese navy vessels that entered its territorial waters.
Instead, it deployed coast guard and navy ships to shadow the intruders, and positioned submarines in ambush zones northeast and southwest of Taiwan proper, and said this approach was guided by its principle of not firing the first shot.
“The moral high ground and legitimacy of any tactical actions will be contested in the information domain,” said Studeman, who is a national security fellow at MITRE, a nonprofit research group.
At the Taipei war game on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, attended by former US and Japanese defense officials, the US officials said Taiwan might eventually need to open fire to expel Chinese intruders — but emphasized the importance of giving advance warning.
China has a broader propaganda reach, ready to portray itself as the victim of any Taiwan-initiated aggression, Studeman said.
“Worst case, Taiwan’s actions could justify harsh countermeasures from Beijing across all domains to punish Taiwan,” he said.
“I don’t think we can easily predict what level of support political leaders [in Washington and Tokyo] might be willing to provide to Taipei, especially if the tactical interaction becomes a ‘he said, she said’” situation, Studeman added.
“Taiwan must repeatedly warn that China is pressing up to red lines that will require a strong Taiwan response,” he said.
“Failure to demonstrate the appropriate use of strength and resolve at the right time in the right way will only invite deeper and unacceptable encroachments,” Studeman said.
Such developments could “ultimately compromise the defense system required to protect Taiwan’s existence as a democracy,” he added.
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