The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could be ramping up on a provocative, large-scale military exercise to help conceal a rise in internal conflicts in Beijing, Taiwanese defense expert Shen Ming-shih (沈明室) said on Friday.
Analysts have suspected the PLAN intends to conduct a large-scale drill around the Dragon Boat Festival, which was yesterday, said Shen, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
A PLAN strike group, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier, was spotted approaching Taiwan from the East China Sea, eliciting countermaneuvers from a US Navy strike group based around the USS George Washington and the USS Nimitz aircraft carriers, he said.
Photo: Reuters
Beijing has acknowledged that the PLAN is conducting a “routine annual exercise,” but without divulging the name of the drill, its purpose or the ships involved, Shen said.
While few doubt China’s strategy of using drills to pressure Taiwan and the US, its more immediate motive might be due to turmoil rocking the PLA’s senior leadership, he said.
PLA General He Weidong (何衛東) and PLAN Admiral Miao Hua (苗華) reportedly had fallen out of favor with China’s Central Military Commission, while the commanders of the Eastern, Western and Northern Theater Commands are under investigation or have disappeared, he said.
A large, provocative exercise could provide Beijing with the optics it needs to cover up the chaos roiling in the military’s inner corridors, Shen said.
That Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (張又俠) was recently seen observing a military exercise alone was another piece of evidence suggesting disarray in the PLA, he said.
Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun’s (董軍) absence from the Shangri-La Dialogue further implies that the PLA is more concerned with its internal stability than maintaining communication channels with US President Donald Trump, Shen said.
Unless Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) decides to make a desperate last stand, the chances of the CCP choosing to escalate tensions before resolving the issue of military leadership are low, Shen said.
The Chinese government is well aware that accidentally starting a war without a clear military leadership structure would spell disaster, he said.
The CCP’s 24th Central Committee Meeting would be the key event to observe, as internal conflicts are expected to be resolved by then, Shen said.
In 2022, the PLA launched a series of live-fire drills and simulated naval blockades targeting Taiwan following a visit to the nation by then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, he said.
The exercises resulted in nothing of importance, proving that Beijing would go to great lengths to project an image of strength, he said.
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