The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could be ramping up on a provocative, large-scale military exercise to help conceal a rise in internal conflicts in Beijing, Taiwanese defense expert Shen Ming-shih (沈明室) said on Friday.
Analysts have suspected the PLAN intends to conduct a large-scale drill around the Dragon Boat Festival, which was yesterday, said Shen, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
A PLAN strike group, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier, was spotted approaching Taiwan from the East China Sea, eliciting countermaneuvers from a US Navy strike group based around the USS George Washington and the USS Nimitz aircraft carriers, he said.
Photo: Reuters
Beijing has acknowledged that the PLAN is conducting a “routine annual exercise,” but without divulging the name of the drill, its purpose or the ships involved, Shen said.
While few doubt China’s strategy of using drills to pressure Taiwan and the US, its more immediate motive might be due to turmoil rocking the PLA’s senior leadership, he said.
PLA General He Weidong (何衛東) and PLAN Admiral Miao Hua (苗華) reportedly had fallen out of favor with China’s Central Military Commission, while the commanders of the Eastern, Western and Northern Theater Commands are under investigation or have disappeared, he said.
A large, provocative exercise could provide Beijing with the optics it needs to cover up the chaos roiling in the military’s inner corridors, Shen said.
That Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (張又俠) was recently seen observing a military exercise alone was another piece of evidence suggesting disarray in the PLA, he said.
Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun’s (董軍) absence from the Shangri-La Dialogue further implies that the PLA is more concerned with its internal stability than maintaining communication channels with US President Donald Trump, Shen said.
Unless Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) decides to make a desperate last stand, the chances of the CCP choosing to escalate tensions before resolving the issue of military leadership are low, Shen said.
The Chinese government is well aware that accidentally starting a war without a clear military leadership structure would spell disaster, he said.
The CCP’s 24th Central Committee Meeting would be the key event to observe, as internal conflicts are expected to be resolved by then, Shen said.
In 2022, the PLA launched a series of live-fire drills and simulated naval blockades targeting Taiwan following a visit to the nation by then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, he said.
The exercises resulted in nothing of importance, proving that Beijing would go to great lengths to project an image of strength, he said.
“China is preparing to invade Taiwan,” Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Francois Wu (吳志中) said in an exclusive interview with British media channel Sky News for a special report titled, “Is Taiwan ready for a Chinese invasion?” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said today in a statement. The 25-minute-long special report by Helen Ann-Smith released yesterday saw Sky News travel to Penghu, Taoyuan and Taipei to discuss the possibility of a Chinese invasion and how Taiwan is preparing for an attack. The film observed emergency response drills, interviewed baseball fans at the Taipei Dome on their views of US President
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) today issued a "tsunami watch" alert after a magnitude 8.7 earthquake struck off the Kamchatka Peninsula in northeastern Russia earlier in the morning. The quake struck off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula at 7:25am (Taiwan time) at a depth of about 19km, the CWA said, citing figures from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. The CWA's Seismological Center said preliminary assessments indicate that a tsunami could reach Taiwan's coastal areas by 1:18pm today. The CWA urged residents along the coast to stay alert and take necessary precautions as waves as high as 1m could hit the southeastern
ECONOMIC BENEFITS: The imports from Belize would replace those from Honduras, whose shrimp exports have dropped 67 percent since cutting ties in 2023 Maintaining ties with Taiwan has economic benefits, Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials said yesterday, citing the approval of frozen whiteleg shrimp imports from Belize by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as an example. The FDA on Wednesday approved the tariff-free imports from Belize after the whiteleg shrimp passed the Systematic Inspection of Imported Food, which would continue to boost mutual trade, the ministry said. Taiwan’s annual consumption of whiteleg shrimps stands at 30,000 tonnes, far exceeding domestic production, the ministry said. Taiwan used to fill the gap by importing shrimps from Honduras, but purchases slumped after Tegucigalpa severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan
The Executive Yuan yesterday approved a southwestern extension of the Sanying MRT Line from New Taipei to Bade District (八德) in Taoyuan, with a goal of starting construction by late 2026. The 4.03-kilometer extension, featuring three new stations, will run from the current terminus at Yingtao Fude Station (LB12) in New Taipei City to Dannan Station (LB14), where it will connect with Taoyuan’s Green Line, New Taipei City Metro Corp said in a statement. This extension will follow the completion of core Sanying Line, a 14.29-kilometer medium-capacity system linking Tucheng (土城), Sansia (三峽)
RSS