Liberal democracies in the Asia-Pacific region must become more resilient, individually and collectively, and carefully consider how to reset their relationships with Washington, to navigate the new cold war between the US and China, an international relations expert said yesterday.
Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow at Chatham House in London and a senior adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, made the remarks at a forum in Taipei hosted by the Taiwan-based Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation.
In his opening keynote at the event, which was themed “Building Resilience on Shaky Ground in the Asia Pacific,” Niblett said the world is witnessing a new cold war emerge between the US, the world’s biggest consumer market, and China, the world’s biggest exporter.
Photo: CNA
While Washington believes China has grown to its position “on the back of America,” and is determined not to help anymore, Beijing believes the US wants to prevent its rise and to contain it economically, he said.
Their dispute is not only a geopolitical contest, but also a competition in military, technology and ideology.
“If China wants to be economically secured as the world’s largest exporter, it wants to break out of the first island chain,” he said, adding that Beijing has been investing heavily in its navy, making efforts to control the South China Sea, and pursuing nuclear capabilities to match those of the US and Russia.
Technology is critical to economic growth and central to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “military-civil fusion,” which uses technology to bolster its military capabilities, he said.
It is also an ideological war between a top-down centralized government and a bottom-up democratic government, he said, adding that the CCP is afraid the US would undermine its leadership by spreading democracy.
“The US-China contest really became a cold war because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine” — as it forced China to pick sides, and it chose Moscow, Niblett said.
That raised a sense of insecurity in the Asia-Pacific region, especially among US allies, as they are not only facing China, but also with Russia, he said.
At the end of the US president Joe Biden’s administration, there was a “knitting together” of the US’ allies, with the G7 acting as a steering committee for coordinating the US’ Atlantic and Pacific allies against China and Russia, he said.
That created opportunities for other countries, playing one side off the other, he added.
However, with US President Donald Trump’s return to power, the new cold war has entered a new chapter, with a range of new risks, Niblett said.
The fundamental difference between Biden and the current president is that Trump does not believe in alliances, he said.
Trump views allies as countries to take advantage of, because he believes they rely on the US consumer market and the US military for security, but the US needs to “negotiate with its rivals,” he said.
Beijing has been accelerating its “gray zone” operations, including military exercises around Taiwan and naval activities in the region, since Trump’s return, he said.
Meanwhile, nations in the Asia-Pacific region fear that Trump’s “me first” policies could deeply damage economies that have long relied on access to global markets, he added.
In such a challenging moment, liberal democracies in the region, including Taiwan, should “become more resilient individually,” as bilateral treaty arrangements with the US remain vital, but might no longer be relied upon in the short term, Niblett said.
Asia-Pacific democracies must increase defense spending and be innovative in their defense strategies, enhance hybrid resilience against “gray zone” warfare, and bolster their energy and economic resilience, he said.
They also need to “become more resilient collectively,” strengthen regional economic integration, such as with ASEAN, open up markets among themselves and retain relationships with the EU, he said.
“Taiwan’s future lies with the other liberal democracies that rely on America for their security,” he said, adding that “looking for deeper economic or business relationships with the G7 or countries such as Australia, would be absolutely vital for Taiwan’s future.”
Liberal democracies in the Asia-Pacific region must also “be very thoughtful about how to reset relationships with the US,” he said.
A challenge for them is how to make sure the US sees them as good allies, when Washington wakes up again and realizes its need for alliances, he said.
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