Liberal democracies in the Asia-Pacific region must become more resilient, individually and collectively, and carefully consider how to reset their relationships with Washington, to navigate the new cold war between the US and China, an international relations expert said yesterday.
Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow at Chatham House in London and a senior adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, made the remarks at a forum in Taipei hosted by the Taiwan-based Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation.
In his opening keynote at the event, which was themed “Building Resilience on Shaky Ground in the Asia Pacific,” Niblett said the world is witnessing a new cold war emerge between the US, the world’s biggest consumer market, and China, the world’s biggest exporter.
Photo: CNA
While Washington believes China has grown to its position “on the back of America,” and is determined not to help anymore, Beijing believes the US wants to prevent its rise and to contain it economically, he said.
Their dispute is not only a geopolitical contest, but also a competition in military, technology and ideology.
“If China wants to be economically secured as the world’s largest exporter, it wants to break out of the first island chain,” he said, adding that Beijing has been investing heavily in its navy, making efforts to control the South China Sea, and pursuing nuclear capabilities to match those of the US and Russia.
Technology is critical to economic growth and central to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “military-civil fusion,” which uses technology to bolster its military capabilities, he said.
It is also an ideological war between a top-down centralized government and a bottom-up democratic government, he said, adding that the CCP is afraid the US would undermine its leadership by spreading democracy.
“The US-China contest really became a cold war because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine” — as it forced China to pick sides, and it chose Moscow, Niblett said.
That raised a sense of insecurity in the Asia-Pacific region, especially among US allies, as they are not only facing China, but also with Russia, he said.
At the end of the US president Joe Biden’s administration, there was a “knitting together” of the US’ allies, with the G7 acting as a steering committee for coordinating the US’ Atlantic and Pacific allies against China and Russia, he said.
That created opportunities for other countries, playing one side off the other, he added.
However, with US President Donald Trump’s return to power, the new cold war has entered a new chapter, with a range of new risks, Niblett said.
The fundamental difference between Biden and the current president is that Trump does not believe in alliances, he said.
Trump views allies as countries to take advantage of, because he believes they rely on the US consumer market and the US military for security, but the US needs to “negotiate with its rivals,” he said.
Beijing has been accelerating its “gray zone” operations, including military exercises around Taiwan and naval activities in the region, since Trump’s return, he said.
Meanwhile, nations in the Asia-Pacific region fear that Trump’s “me first” policies could deeply damage economies that have long relied on access to global markets, he added.
In such a challenging moment, liberal democracies in the region, including Taiwan, should “become more resilient individually,” as bilateral treaty arrangements with the US remain vital, but might no longer be relied upon in the short term, Niblett said.
Asia-Pacific democracies must increase defense spending and be innovative in their defense strategies, enhance hybrid resilience against “gray zone” warfare, and bolster their energy and economic resilience, he said.
They also need to “become more resilient collectively,” strengthen regional economic integration, such as with ASEAN, open up markets among themselves and retain relationships with the EU, he said.
“Taiwan’s future lies with the other liberal democracies that rely on America for their security,” he said, adding that “looking for deeper economic or business relationships with the G7 or countries such as Australia, would be absolutely vital for Taiwan’s future.”
Liberal democracies in the Asia-Pacific region must also “be very thoughtful about how to reset relationships with the US,” he said.
A challenge for them is how to make sure the US sees them as good allies, when Washington wakes up again and realizes its need for alliances, he said.
NATIONAL SECURITY: Authorities are working to confirm the identities of the military personnel involved and investigating possible illegal conduct and regulatory violations Authorities are probing possible national security implications after Kinmen police and immigration officers on Sunday found a Chinese woman allegedly posing as a tourist while engaging in prostitution involving more than 10 military personnel. The woman, surnamed Chen (陳), has since been deported, authorities said, adding that investigators are still working to confirm the identities of those implicated, as the records only listed code names and aliases. The case stemmed from a report received by the Kinmen District Prosecutors’ Office on Friday last week from the Jinhu Precinct of the Kinmen County Police Bureau. On Sunday, police, along with the National Immigration
GLOBALGIVING: ‘ Caving to external pressure is not acceptable for an organization that has cultivated justice reform and human rights for 30 years,’ one NGO said A slew of non-government organizations (NGOs) have withdrawn from the GlobalGiving fundraising platform after it announced it would use “Chinese Taipei” instead of “Taiwan” from next month. The Taiwan Good Rice Association wrote on Facebook on Friday that it was informed on April 28 via a teleconference call of the change, which was made because the platform wanted to operate in China. Taiwan Good Rice is to terminate all cooperative relationships with GlobalGiving in response to the platform’s “unilateral and non-negotiable” decision to remove references to Taiwan, the NGO said. “Taiwan is in the official name of Taiwan Good Rice Association and the
HEAVY WEATHER: Typhoon Jangmi is due to crash straight into the Ryukyus as airlines look to shift flights to larger aircraft or cancel flights to Okinawa entirely Taiwan’s international air carriers announced flight adjustments over the weekend as Typhoon Jangmi is forecast to hit the Ryukyu Islands today and tomorrow. The Central Weather Administration (CWA) upgraded Jangmi from a tropical storm to a typhoon at 8am yesterday, with the eye located 580km south of Naha city. It was moving north at 19kph. Today, China Airlines’ CI-120, CI-121, CI-122 and CI-123 flights between Taoyuan and Naha, Okinawa, have been canceled as well as CI-132 and CI-133 between Kaohsiung and Naha. EVA Air’s BR-112, BR-113, BR-186 and BR-185 flights between Taoyuan and Naha are also canceled. Low-cost carrier Tigerair Taiwan canceled IT-230,
MULTIPRONGED APPROACH: China has sought to pressure Palau across a number of fronts, but the island nation has staunchly resisted overtures to ditch Taiwan Palau has been firm in backing Taiwan despite Chinese pressure that uses tourism economics, cyberattacks and criminal infiltration as tools to threaten the Pacific ally into renouncing its recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign state. The Presidential Office yesterday announced that Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴) would visit Palau from Saturday to Wednesday next week at the invitation of Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr. Whipps in April said in an interview that China had outspokenly asked Palau to “denounce Taiwan.” “And we have said: ‘We have no enemies, but nobody tells us who our friends are,’” he said. Whipps has told reporters multiple times
RSS