An updated version of an English-language civil defense handbook by a Canadian author to prepare expatriates in Taiwan for natural disasters and a possible military attack by China has been released online.
“Resilience Roadmap V2.0,” (https://thecultureshack.blog/2025/03/03/update-resilience-roadmap-v2-0/) released earlier this month contains new material aimed at helping people boost their survivability — for example, how to quickly evade toxic smoke in a fire — John Groot, who created the guide, said on Monday.
It also provides more information on radio communications and water purification, Groot said.
Photo: Tsai Ching-hua, Taipei Times
The most extensive updates are to the section titled “Analysis of Factors Related to War.”
In that section, Groot offers a more detailed analysis of potential quarantines or blockades imposed by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around Taiwan based on information he has gathered and discussions with defense experts.
The guide was released as Taiwan is preparing for a civil defense drill on March 27.
The drill, set against the backdrop of Taiwan being on the “verge of conflict with China,” is to test civilians’ abilities to respond to “gray zone” activities, including their ability to find air raid shelters, a security official said.
The threat of a military attack by China was what motivated him to publish “Resilience Roadmap V1.0” in December 2023, Groot said, adding that a “major increase” in Chinese military activity around Taiwan and an increasingly aggressive stance taken by the PLA was a main impetus for the update.
The updated analysis includes how the China Coast Guard has a role in military exercises near Taiwan, after the PLA staged the Joint Sword 2024-A and Joint Sword 2024-B large-scale military exercises.
In those exercises, China Coast Guard ships carried out “law enforcement patrols” near Taiwan alongside Chinese navy vessels, the guide said.
“Another goal [of a blockade] might be to force foreign shipping to register with the China Coast Guard for permission to transit the Taiwan Strait or to enter or leave Taiwanese ports, thus asserting sovereignty over Taiwan,” Groot wrote.
“This would be hard to respond to as Taiwan would not want to fire the first shot in an uneven conflict. Also, the international community might see this as less problematic than a full blockade as it would not cut off commercial traffic through the Taiwan Strait,” he wrote.
Given the PLA has ramped up military activity in Taiwan’s vicinity over the past year, Groot also warned of the possibility of the Chinese military quickly turning military exercises into a surprise attack on Taiwan.
This is one of the key scenarios that is to be simulated in Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang wargames this year.
“Large-scale military exercises have become the ‘new normal’ and the PLA could pivot from exercises to real action in as little as 24 hours. Strategic strikes could be launched with no warning,” he wrote.
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