The Chinese military is engaging in “gunboat diplomacy” by holding unannounced live-fire drills near Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand, and is demonstrating its intent to counterbalance the US, academics said.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Wednesday set up a zone for “shooting” drills about 40 nautical miles (74km) off the coasts of Kaohsiung and Pingtung County without giving Taiwan prior notice, the Ministry of National Defense said that day.
The PLA on Feb. 21 and Feb. 22 conducted a live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, also without notifying the authorities in advance.
Photo: AFP
Live rounds were fired in the drills near New Zealand, but were not in the drills near Taiwan. However, in both areas civilian aircraft had to modify their flight paths, including some in mid-flight, after receiving reports of the live-fire exercises.
Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, said that such moves could be seen as a response to recent military and diplomatic developments related to the US.
These include a joint US-Japan-France naval drill in the Philippine Sea, the US Department of State dropping wording on its Web site saying it does not support Taiwanese independence and the release of previously frozen US foreign aid with US$870 million in security exemptions for programs in Taiwan, Lin said.
The PLA drills in international waters without prior notice were a form of “gunboat diplomacy,” Lin said, adding that Beijing is using military actions to send political signals to those countries and beyond.
He said that whether the PLA announces a drill in advance depends on its size and political purpose, with Beijing more likely to publicize larger exercises.
Lin cited two examples of larg drills that were announced beforehand — the “Joint Sword-2024” exercises and the military encirclement of Taiwan following then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in 2022.
Having Chinese warships carry out exercises off Taiwan’s southern coast and near Australia and New Zealand also signaled China’s intent to show its ability to block US military intervention in Taiwan-related affairs from the western and southern Pacific, he said.
The maneuvers could also be seen as a reaction to the US military’s longstanding policy of freedom of navigation operations to assert and protect the right of free passage wherever international law allows, he said.
The Chinese military wanted to show that its warships could also assert their rights to free passage in international waters, as well as back up the claim that “China is now capable of keeping up with the US,” Lin said.
Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at the military-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the Chinese military is increasingly engaging in “gunboat diplomacy” as its fleet expands and matures.
Historically, when regional tensions arose, US aircraft carriers would typically move into the area as a response, which the Chinese military appears to be mimicking, Su said.
Regarding the timing of the Chinese military exercises off Taiwan’s southern coast, Su said it could be linked to the recent deepening of military cooperation between Taiwan and the US.
In the short term, China wants to project military power and intimidate Taiwan by conducting drills at specific times, while over the long-term it is attempting to shift from being a land-based power to a maritime power, Su said.
There are no binding international regulations requiring prior notification of such exercises to other countries, Su said, adding that similar unannounced drills by the Chinese military in international waters might grow more frequent.
However, such actions are highly irresponsible and potentially pose a threat to maritime navigation, he said.
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