Beijing is poised to encircle Taiwan proper in military exercise “Joint Sword-2024C,” starting today or tomorrow, as President William Lai (賴清德) returns from his visit to diplomatic allies in the Pacific, a national security official said yesterday.
Commenting on condition of anonymity, the official said that multiple intelligence sources showed that China is “highly likely” to launch new drills around Taiwan.
Although the drills’ scale is unknown, there is little doubt that they are part of the military activities China initiated before Lai’s departure, they said.
Photo: Greg Baker, AFP
Beijing at the same time is conducting information warfare by fanning skepticism of the US and Lai among Taiwanese, they said.
China and its proxies are circulating false narratives alleging that Washington prevented Lai from laying over in the continental US in a snub to Taiwan and that US arms sales are an ineffectual protection racket, the official said.
They also spread the rumor that US president-elect Donald Trump would cut off military aid to Taiwan to punish Lai for being associated with US Representative Nancy Pelosi, they said.
The point of the Chinese disinformation campaign being waged in recent days was to sow division in Taiwan and undermine its relationship with the upcoming Trump administration, the official said.
From this perspective, Lai’s diplomatic trip in the Pacific was a pretext for Beijing to raise the temperature in the Taiwan Strait with a fresh round of exercises and activities, they said.
The Phillippines and South Korea were not spared from hostile acts by China, despite recognizing Beijing’s stance regarding Taiwan’s status, they said.
China would use any official contact by Taiwan with members of the international community as a pretext, the official said.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been conducting a flurry of activities in the waters surrounding the first island chain, including a patrol on Thursday last week in the Taiwan Strait and drills off Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island, 黃岩島), the official said.
China’s state-run social media lauded the Scarborough exercise, rationalizing it as upholding national sovereignty, they said.
Russia joined China the following day in launching a mixed formation of military aircraft that passed over the Tsushima Strait, to South Korea’s protest, the official said.
This air patrol involved five Chinese and six Russian military aircraft, which flew into South Korea’s air defense identification zone without giving Seoul prior notice, they added.
The military actions closely followed the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oborony Ukrayiny’s Nov. 27 visit to South Korea to request the latter provide arms for fending off the Russian invasion, they said.
Russian Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov on Friday last week visited North Korea to thank the latter’s provision of troops and ammunition, the official said.
On Saturday, Japan said that PLA bombers had entered the seas between Okinawa proper and Miyako in the Pacific before returning by way of the East China Sea, they said.
Meanwhile, three Russian Steregushchiy-class corvettes and a supply ship deviated from their normal patrol course to sail close to Taiwan proper’s 24-nautical mile (44.4km) line, adding to China’s constant harrying of the nation’s near seas, they said.
The Russian vessels joined a Chinese warship in the area before starting naval drills, they added.
On Tuesday, an alarmed Japan sortied a surveillance plane and warship after spotting a Russian Kilo-class submarine near its territorial waters, the official said.
China’s involvement in these activities is an act calculated to assert control over the first island chain and lay claim to it as a Chinese red line, they said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is likely flexing China’s military strength to redraw the map for Beijing’s sphere of influence and strategically deter the US ahead of Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, the official said.
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