Tropical Storm Usagi, the fourth tropical storm to form in the Western Pacific in the past 10 days, may eventually affect Taiwan, but already has the Philippines on alert.
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) said that Usagi had an 80km radius as of 8am today above waters 660km northwest of the Yap Islands in the Philippines, or about 1,660km east-southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻).
Photo courtesy of the Central Weather Administration
The storm is currently moving west-northwest at a speed of 27kph, with maximum sustained winds of 72kph and gusts reaching up to 101kph.
The CWA projected that by 8am tomorrow, Usagi would be positioned 760km east of Manila, or about 1,060km southeast of Oluanpi.
Original predictions of the storm's varied among countries, but in an updated forecast yesterday evening, the CWA said that Usagi's route was trending north of its previous projected path, which could lead to sea warnings being issued for waters near Taiwan on Thursday.
CWA forecaster Chen Pei-an (陳姵安) said the storm was likely to northward on Thursday, but she remained unsure if it would turn to the northwest and head into the South China Sea through the Bashi Channel, or turn due north and affect waters east of Taiwan.
As of this morning, CWA graphics showed the storm heading toward waters east of Taiwan sometime over the weekend.
Regardless of the forecasts, the Philippines are not taking any chances.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration issued an advisory for Tropical Storm Usagi, locally named "Ofel," at 5am today, although it noted that the storm had yet to directly affect any part of the country.
According to the agency's advisory, the tropical storm would continue moving west-northwest before turning northwest to north on Thursday evening, potentially making landfall over northern and central Luzon on Thursday afternoon or evening.
Usagi is expected to steadily intensify over the next three days and could develop into a typhoon tomorrow, the agency said.
The formation of Tropical Storm Usagi marked the first recorded instance of four tropical storms or upper-level weather systems existing simultaneously in November, joining tropical storms Yinxing, Toraji and Man-yi.
None of the other three storms have affected Taiwan, and the overall phenomenon is expected to conclude soon, as Yinxing, which formed on Monday last week, is weakening and would soon dissipate.
The last time the CWA observed the coexistence of four tropical storms or upper-level weather systems was in October 1994.
Meanwhile, the CWA issued a heavy rain advisory today for the northern coastal areas of New Taipei City and Keelung, as well as mountainous areas in Taipei and Yilan County.
The advisory is in effect until tonight.
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