China’s rare test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday was likely intended to send a message of deterrence to the US, analysts said.
An ICBM carrying a dummy warhead was launched at 8:44am on Wednesday as part of a routine training exercise by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, the Chinese Ministry of Defense said.
The missile fell into “expected sea areas” in the Pacific Ocean, the ministry said, without specifying an exact location.
Photo: screen grab from Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Weibo account
Authorities in French Polynesia later said that the missile had landed in waters near the island’s exclusive economic zone, and that China had sent advance notification to France.
That was the first time in 44 years that China launched an ICBM into the Pacific Ocean, Institute for Defense and Security Research associate research fellow Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌) said.
China typically tests long-range missiles over its own territory. It last launched an ICBM into the South Pacific in 1980.
The launch was likely intended as a message to the US, which has steadily expanded its presence in the Indo-Pacific region in recent years, putting pressure on China, Shu said.
Beijing, in turn, has formed an alliance and increasingly conducts joint military exercises with Russia, he said.
As for the logic and timing of the test, in an era of “great power competition,” countries need to continually improve their strategic deterrence capabilities, he added.
Beijing might also have wanted to show that the PLA Rocket Force’s readiness has not been negatively impacted after several of its senior leaders were removed during an anti-graft purge last year, Shu said.
Based on images released by the PLA, the ICBM used in the test launch was likely a Dongfeng-31 AG, which has a range of about 12,000km, Tamkang University’s Center for Advanced Technology researcher Yang Tai-yuan (楊太源) said.
China also has Dongfeng-41 and JL-3 ICBMs, which have ranges of more than 13,500km and are capable of reaching the US east coast, Yang said.
For that reason, Wednesday’s test launch sends a message to Washington that Beijing still has nuclear second-strike capabilities and possesses the ability to deter US intervention if a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, Yang said.
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