The US “is very likely” to adopt an “alliance” position to assist in defending Taiwan in the event of a cross-strait military conflict, an academic from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research told a forum in Taipei yesterday, calling on the government to enhance the nation’s preparedness.
Shen Ming-shih (沈明室), director of the institute’s Division of National Security Research, made the remarks at a forum hosted by the Taiwan Association of University Professors.
Discussion topics ranged from Taiwan-US joint defense to the US Taiwan Relations Act to a remark by US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John Aquilino in March that China would be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Photo: Huang Chin-hsuan, Taipei Times
The US has been assisting Taiwan to buttress its self-defense through a “quasi-alliance” position, in which it provides arm sales, military financing and training for Taiwan based on the Taiwan Relations Act, Shen said.
Considering Taiwan’s strategic value, the US would be willing to support Taiwan militarily, similarly to how NATO assists Ukraine — a nonmember country — amid Russia’s invasion for geostrategic concerns, he said.
If a cross-strait conflict breaks out, the quasi-alliance position adopted by the US would “very likely” elevate to an alliance stance that includes Japan, although they have not yet established diplomatic relations and defense protocols with Taiwan, Shen said.
The US could interfere in a conflict between Taiwan and China in three different ways: providing weapons and intelligence without dispatching troops, offering sea and air armed assistance, or dispatching ground forces to Taiwan, he said.
The Taiwanese government should prepare for such military cooperation with the US, especially the coordination of joint operations and integration of command-and-control systems, he said, adding that the military should complete relevant training and logistics planning to enhance defense capabilities.
Once a cross-strait war erupts, time pressures would be no less than during the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis in the hours after Kinmen County was shelled, said Huang Chung-ting (黃宗鼎), associate research fellow from the institute’s Division of Chinese Politics, Military and Warfighting Concepts.
The White House would need time to verify the invasion and make a decision for the US Congress to review and approve, he said, adding that the period would be critical to Taiwan’s security in a conflict scenario.
Taiwan should make legal preparations by signing a reciprocal access or visiting forces agreement that allows US troops to be temporarily stationed in Taiwan, or even by signing a status of forces agreement that enables the long-term stay of forces or an agreement allowing the US to use military bases, if the US substantively considers providing armed assistance for Taiwan, Huang said.
Regarding the US’ long-held position of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan, he said it was intended to disrupt Beijing’s judgement about the situation, but it could also fuel the “US skepticism theory” in Taiwan.
Additional reporting by CNA
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