Former US president Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate, could weaken alliances and undermine deterrence against China, posing risks for Taiwan, international relations experts have warned.
Trump would face US President Joe Biden in November if Biden withstands the pressure from Democratic Party members and donors to step aside.
Their vastly different foreign policies have significant implications for Taiwan, two experts said.
Photo: CNA
University of Pennsylvania Center for the Study of Contemporary China director Jacques deLisle on Friday said that a Democratic victory would likely mean “a great deal of continuity” in Taiwan policy.
However, a Trump victory would be unpredictable, with Republican lawmakers likely following his lead, posing risks for Taiwan, deLisle said.
One risk is Trump’s “transactional approach” to diplomacy, he said, adding that the former president’s demand Taiwan pay more for US defense aid mirrors his stance toward NATO.
While the US has aided Taiwan in arms purchases, Trump believes Taipei should “pay market prices,” he added.
Trump does not value US commitments to allies, he said. Regardless of his view on Taiwan’s security, he would likely weaken US relations with Japan, South Korea and other allies, affecting cooperation to deter China, he added.
In contrast, since taking office in 2021, Biden has repeatedly stated his willingness to defend Taiwan, and in an interview with Time magazine last month he did not rule out military action.
The importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait has often been emphasized in US bilateral and multilateral meetings with allies.
Meanwhile, Council on Foreign Relations research fellow David Sacks wrote in an article titled “Taiwan’s Trump Conundrum” published on Friday that a Trump victory would present allies with a US president who views diplomacy as transactional.
“This dilemma will be keenly felt in Taiwan,” he said.
Trump was popular in Taiwan before leaving office in 2021, marking the closest Taiwan-US relations since Washington switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing in 1979, Sacks said.
However, Trump’s recent comments on Taiwan cast doubt on whether this support would continue if he were re-elected, he said.
Taipei downplayed Trump’s remarks by pointing to bipartisan support in the US and the emphasis on Taiwan’s importance by former Trump administration officials.
While this is true, the US president has significant autonomy in foreign policy, and it might be unrealistic to expect the US Congress to restrain Trump’s actions, Sacks said.
Some believe the US should fully deter China from attacking Taiwan and, if deterrence fails, defend Taiwan due to its strategic location, economic significance and democratic governance, he said.
These arguments aim to prevent negative effects on the international order and US alliances, but such points might not convince Trump, Sacks said.
Trump is skeptical of US alliances, viewing them as “free riders,” he said.
If the US does not defend Taiwan, it could signal to allies that they must take responsibility for their own security, which Trump believes would ultimately benefit the US, he said.
Regarding Trump’s claim that Taiwan has been stealing the US semiconductor industry, deLisle said he believed this was a misunderstanding.
Chip design and development are largely based in the US, while manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co are in Taiwan.
“That’s a cooperative, not a competitive relationship,” deLisle said.
Sacks said that Trump’s comments on Taiwan are “fully consistent with his worldview” and that his view is “unlikely to change.”
For Trump, international relations are often driven by bilateral economic ties, with geopolitics being secondary, he said.
Trump believes Taiwan is taking advantage of the US economically, a perspective likely to influence his broader view of Taiwan-US relations, Sacks added.
Trips for more than 100,000 international and domestic air travelers could be disrupted as China launches a military exercise around Taiwan today, Taiwan’s Civil Aviation Administration (CAA) said yesterday. The exercise could affect nearly 900 flights scheduled to enter the Taipei Flight Information Region (FIR) during the exercise window, it added. A notice issued by the Chinese Civil Aviation Administration showed there would be seven temporary zones around the Taiwan Strait which would be used for live-fire exercises, lasting from 8am to 6pm today. All aircraft are prohibited from entering during exercise, it says. Taipei FIR has 14 international air routes and
Taiwan lacks effective and cost-efficient armaments to intercept rockets, making the planned “T-Dome” interception system necessary, two experts said on Tuesday. The concerns were raised after China’s military fired two waves of rockets during live-fire drills around Taiwan on Tuesday, part of two-day exercises code-named “Justice Mission 2025.” The first wave involved 17 rockets launched at 9am from Pingtan in China’s Fujian Province, according to Lieutenant General Hsieh Jih-sheng (謝日升) of the Office of the Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Intelligence at the Ministry of National Defense. Those rockets landed 70 nautical miles (129.6km) northeast of Keelung without flying over Taiwan,
City buses in Taipei and New Taipei City, as well as the Taipei MRT, would on Saturday begin accepting QR code payments from five electronic payment providers, the Taipei Department of Transportation said yesterday. The new option would allow passengers to use the “transportation QR code” feature from EasyWallet, iPass Money, iCash Pay, Jkopay or PXPay Plus. Passengers should open their preferred electronic payment app, select the “transportation code” — not the regular payment code — unlock it, and scan the code at ticket readers or gates, General Planning Division Director-General Liu Kuo-chu (劉國著) said. People should move through the
The Ministry of National Defense (MND) today released images of the military tracking China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA) movements during the latest round of Chinese drills around Taiwan. The PLA began "Justice Mission 2025" drills today, carrying out live-fire drills, simulated strikes on land and maritime targets, and exercises to blockade the nation's main ports. The exercises are to continue tomorrow, with the PLA announcing sea and air space restrictions for five zones around Taiwan for 10 hours starting from 8:30am. The ministry today released images showing a Chinese J-16 fighter jet tracked by a F-16V Block 20 jet and the
RSS