Fri, Jul 19, 2024 page3

• Experts see negative outlook for Chinese economy in the wake of Third Plenum

  SLOW GROWTH: National Taiwan University researcher Ming Chu-cheng said China is facing the inevitable problems that all advanced economies face

  • By Jonathan Chin / Staff writer, with CNA
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  Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng (邱垂正) and academics yesterday weighed the impact of a top-level meeting in Beijing, largely agreeing on a negative outlook for China’s economic and political future.

  Chiu made the comment at a conference in Taipei on China’s Third Plenum.

  The Chinese official meeting, typically held once every five years, is today scheduled to conclude, with Chinese officials expected to publish records of the proceedings in the following days.

  

  Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng speaks at a forum on the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum in Taipei yesterday.

  Photo: Tu Chien-rong, Taipei Times

  This year’s Third Plenum is mainly focused on deepening reforms and promoting “modernization with Chinese characteristics,” Chiu said, citing Beijing’s official statements.

  Chinese authorities appeared concerned with the flight of Western investors and China’s aging population, he said, adding that Beijing believed wealth redistribution and tax reforms could address the problems.

  Tamkang University associate professor of China studies Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳) said this year’s meeting emphasized developing national security over the economy, marking a break from former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) paradigm that has been in effect since 1978.

  Citing China’s official directive to deepen reforms and modernization, he said China’s important economic indicators are not likely to improve in the short term.

  Anson Hung (洪耀南), an associate professor of international relations at Tamkang University, said the Third Plenum did not offer solutions to China’s economic woes beyond Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s (李強) remedial policies.

  The lack of vision in the Third Plenum put Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) leadership in an unfavorable light, despite a propaganda campaign to prop him up as Deng’s equal, he said.

  National Taiwan University researcher Ming Chu-cheng (明居正) said China’s economy is facing the inevitable problems that all advanced economies must face, the rise in the cost of property, labor, water and electricity.

  A US technology blockade has caused a bottleneck in China’s technological development, he said.

  Beijing has also experienced self-inflicted wounds from the crackdown in Hong Kong, overzealous COVID-19 measures, expanding state-owned enterprises and contracting private enterprises, and a trade dispute with the US, he said.

  Xi’s most significant move was undoing Deng’s reform in a bid to reassert communist party control over the Chinese society and economy, he said.

  These reforms would likely increase Beijing’s totalitarian tendencies and the cult of personality surrounding Xi, Ming said.

  Xi’s efforts to strengthen social control stemmed entirely from the belief that the US would initiate or precipitate a war against China, he said.

  China’s problems would likely prove intractable for at least two decades, as they were symptoms of political interference in the economy, Ming said, adding that Beijing is at risk of creating a caged economy.
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