Mon, Jun 24, 2024 page2

• China might quarantine Taiwan, report says

  • By Wu Meng-feng and William Hetherington / Staff writers
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  China might seek to isolate Taiwan and weaken its economy through a “quarantine,” which would make it difficult for the US to respond and force Taipei to negotiate on unification, CNN reported on Saturday.

  Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) “increasingly bellicose actions” toward Taiwan have heightened concerns that Beijing would use its military against Taiwan, it said, citing a report by think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

  However, China might choose to initiate a quarantine, rather than a military invasion of Taiwan, to avoid US involvement, it said.

  

  A Taiwanese sailor aboard the guided-missile destroyer ROCS Ma Kong monitors the movements of the Chinese destroyer Xian at an undisclosed location in waters near Taiwan in a photograph released on May 24.

  Photo: Ministry of National Defense via EPA-EFE

  “A quarantine [is] a law enforcement-led operation to control maritime or air traffic within a specific area while a blockade is foremost military in nature,” CNN said, citing the report.

  International law considers a blockade an act of war, but “a quarantine led by China’s coast guard is not a declaration of war against Taiwan,” which means that US involvement could be interpreted as the Washington initiating war with China, it said.

  Such a quarantine would be costly for China to maintain, but potentially could deter operators from servicing Taiwan, which would cut off the nation’s population from energy and other supplies, it said.

  Furthermore, the China Coast Guard has 150 ocean-going vessels and 400 smaller ones, while the Coast Guard Administration has only 10 ocean-going ships and about 160 smaller ones, it said.

  Taiwan lacks the numbers to push back a quarantine, it said.

  The think tank report, coauthored by Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiole, Samantha Lu and Truly Tinsley, said the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might only play an auxiliary or support role during such a quarantine, to avoid it being seen as a blockade.

  The actions taken by Beijing to isolate Taiwan during a quarantine might be relatively limited, but they would still have the effect of strangling Taiwan economically, they said.

  “Limited search and/or seizure actions have an effect on flights to Taiwan as a quarantine can easily be extended to the air,” CNN said.

  “Meanwhile, a quarantine, rather than a blockade, would not require China to close or restrict access to the Taiwan Strait… [meaning] Washington” could not justify intervention by arguing it was “preserving freedom of navigation in an international waterway,” it said

  China might not even use the word “quarantine” before isolating Taiwan, which would let it keep the operation more low-key, it said.

  However, the importance of Taiwan’s exports to the world economy would make such a quarantine costly and risky for China, it said, citing one former US military official.

  “Maintaining the quarantine will be expensive and time consuming,” former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center Carl Schuster said.

  “Taipei won’t give up in under 60 days. Can Beijing sustain the effort and possible international reaction for that long?” he asked.

  Separately, Royal United Services Institute senior research fellow Sidharth Kaushal told CNN that “a quarantine could also push Taiwan’s government to declare independence, something Beijing has repeatedly said would likely bring armed conflict.”

  “This would then leave the [Chinese Communist Party] with the options of either escalation or a major setback,” he said.
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