Beijing’s choice of locations for military exercises near Taiwan that began yesterday was intended as a clear provocation and likely the first in a series of drills based on the name “Joint Sword-2024A,” experts said.
Chinese sea, air, land and rocket forces were to conduct military exercises in areas surrounding Taiwan yesterday and today, said Colonel Li Xi (李熹), spokesman for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command.
The drills are intended to be a “strong punishment for acts of Taiwanese separatists, and severe warning against interference and provocation by external forces,” Li said.
Photo: I-Hwa Cheng, Bloomberg
The letter “A” in the exercise’s designation implies that the PLA plans to conduct additional drills with other forces in the operating area, National Policy Foundation associate research fellow Chieh Chung (揭仲) said.
The scope and details of the drills suggest that the exercise is a full dress rehearsal for an invasion, including blockades or amphibious assaults on Taiwan’s outlying islands, Chieh said.
The outlying islands were not part of China’s so-called Taiwan encirclement drills in August 2022 and April last year, exercises that revolved around developing joint blockade and joint fire capabilities respectively, he said.
Photo: AFP
The drills simulating offensive actions on the islands underscore that the PLA is ready to carry out a complete simulation of an invasion of them, a step up from past exercises, he said.
The incursion of China Coast Guard ships into restricted waters off Dongyin (東引) and Wuchiu (烏坵) islands could be a sign that Beijing no longer intends to respect the unofficially recognized boundaries it honored previously, Chieh said.
The election of William Lai (賴清德) as president might be a pretext for China to send ships into contested maritime areas, he said, adding that Chinese vessels have been trespassing into Taiwan’s restricted waters well before Monday’s inauguration.
The drills are also a message meant for the US, making it clear that Beijing would make security guardrails and de-risking impossible unless Washington makes concessions in the Taiwan Strait, Chieh said.
The PLA exercises are an expression of China’s discontent with Lai’s election aimed at the international community, National Taiwan University associate professor of political science Chen Shih-min (陳世民) said.
The Eastern Command’s comment about “external forces” was clearly a reference to the US, Chen said, adding that the drills were a symbolic declaration of dissatisfaction and a warning to the outside world reinforcing Beijing’s stance that Taiwan is a part of China.
China is not likely to embrace significant acts of military adventurism in the months leading up to the US presidential election in November, as rash actions might tempt US President Joe Biden or former US president Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, to call for harsher measures against Beijing, he said.
Beijing’s top priorities lie with China’s economy and resolving other internal problems, he said, adding that hardline actions run the risk of scaring away foreign investors.
China’s placement of the drills near Taiwan’s 24 nautical mile (44.4km) contiguous zone is a deliberate provocation, Institute for National Defense and Security Research associate research fellow Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌) said.
The PLA is not likely to fire missiles, as using live weapons so close to Taiwanese and other foreign forces exposes China to the risks of miscalculation and accidents, and could reveal the setup of its kill chains to prying eyes, including US surveillance assets, Shu said.
However, more restrained gunnery displays could still happen during the drills, he said.
Whether the PLA would follow the drills with other exercises or wait for other states in the region to respond before deciding on the next step cannot be known with the information available at this time, he said.
Although China claimed that its exercises started at 7:45am, the PLA was reportedly massing forces in Fujian’s Dacheng Bay (大埕灣) a week before Lai’s swearing-in ceremony, said Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor of international affairs and strategic studies at Tamkang University.
There is little doubt that the drills were a direct response to the election in Taiwan, as they come shortly after Nauru severed diplomatic ties with Taipei, unilateral modification of the M503 flight route and Chinese vessels in Kinmen’s restricted waters, Lin said.
Echoing Shu’s assessment, Lin said he does not expect Beijing to fire missiles over Taiwan, as such actions would leave China no space for escalation when dealing with Lai for at least four more years.
China designates three levels of military exercises ranging from firing live ballistic missiles; maneuvers of a joint force consisting of air, sea or land units; and maneuvers involving units from a single service, such as a formation of combat aircraft, he said.
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