More Taiwanese believe it would be difficult to maintain the cross-strait “status quo” amid persistent Chinese pressure, Academia Sinica research fellow Wu Jieh-min (吳介民) said on Monday, citing survey findings.
Wu made the comments during a forum on Chinese and US influence on Taiwan’s latest election at Tokai University in Tokyo.
Those who downplay the “China factor” in the January election say it played a less decisive role than in the 2020 and 2016 elections, Wu said.
Photo: CNA
However, Chinese influence on this election becomes clear when observing public opinion over time, he said.
Several key moments were decided due to Chinese influence, for instance the withdrawal of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) from the race due to crackdowns on the company's operations in China, Wu said.
Intensified cognitive warfare and misinformation has also played a role, including efforts to smear the government over an egg shortage last year and claims that the Democratic Progressive Party is courting war, he said.
Public opinion polls from the past eight years show that when given a choice between maintaining the “status quo,” independence and unification, more than 80 percent support the “status quo” and the fewest support unification, he said.
In another survey, the option of maintaining the “status quo” while moving toward independence was more popular than maintaining the “status quo” indefinitely as of President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) re-election in 2020, Wu said.
However, over the past three years, support for maintaining the “status quo” while moving toward independence has dropped, he said.
A third survey asked Taiwanese about their predictions regarding the future of cross-strait relations, Wu said.
Before 2019, the number of people believing there would either be eventual unification or independence fluctuated, with the percentage expecting independence reaching a peak of more than 20 percentage points over the alternative in 2020, he said.
However, the gap has narrowed in recent years, with those expecting eventual independence only narrowly outnumbering those expecting unification in last year’s survey, he said, adding that maintaining a perpetual “status quo” came in third.
These results show that the vast majority of Taiwanese wish to keep the “status quo,” but do not think it would be possible to do so forever, Wu said, adding that more people are also worried about Taiwan being forced into unification.
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